Independent Franchise Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

IFPUX Fund  USD 21.83  0.14  0.64%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Independent Franchise Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.23. Independent Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Independent Franchise's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Independent, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 74

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Independent Franchise's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Independent Franchise Partners, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Independent Franchise hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Independent Franchise Partners from the perspective of Independent Franchise response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Independent Franchise Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.23.

Independent Franchise after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 21.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Independent Franchise to cross-verify your projections.

Independent Franchise Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Independent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Independent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Independent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Independent Franchise - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Independent Franchise prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Independent Franchise price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Independent Franchise.

Independent Franchise Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Independent Franchise Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Independent Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Independent Franchise's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Independent Franchise Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Independent FranchiseIndependent Franchise Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Independent Franchise Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Independent Franchise's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Independent Franchise's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.43 and 23.38, respectively. We have considered Independent Franchise's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.83
21.90
Expected Value
23.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Independent Franchise mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Independent Franchise mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0452
MADMean absolute deviation0.1565
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0079
SAESum of the absolute errors9.2314
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Independent Franchise observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Independent Franchise Partners observations.

Predictive Modules for Independent Franchise

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Independent Franchise. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Independent Franchise's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.3621.8323.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.8223.2924.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.4920.8923.29
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Independent Franchise

For every potential investor in Independent, whether a beginner or expert, Independent Franchise's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Independent Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Independent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Independent Franchise's price trends.

Independent Franchise Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Independent Franchise mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Independent Franchise could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Independent Franchise by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Independent Franchise Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Independent Franchise's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Independent Franchise's current price.

Independent Franchise Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Independent Franchise mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Independent Franchise shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Independent Franchise mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Independent Franchise Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Independent Franchise Risk Indicators

The analysis of Independent Franchise's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Independent Franchise's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting independent mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Independent Mutual Fund

Independent Franchise financial ratios help investors to determine whether Independent Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Independent with respect to the benefits of owning Independent Franchise security.
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