Cbre Clarion Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

IGR Fund  USD 5.80  0.03  0.52%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cbre Clarion Global on the next trading day is expected to be 6.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.23. Cbre Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Cbre Clarion is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Cbre Clarion Global value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Cbre Clarion Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cbre Clarion Global on the next trading day is expected to be 6.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cbre Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cbre Clarion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cbre Clarion Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cbre ClarionCbre Clarion Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cbre Clarion Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cbre Clarion's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cbre Clarion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.79 and 7.22, respectively. We have considered Cbre Clarion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.80
6.01
Expected Value
7.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cbre Clarion fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cbre Clarion fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.0119
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0682
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0115
SAESum of the absolute errors4.2273
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Cbre Clarion Global. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Cbre Clarion. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Cbre Clarion

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cbre Clarion Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.575.786.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.605.817.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cbre Clarion. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cbre Clarion's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cbre Clarion's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cbre Clarion Global.

Other Forecasting Options for Cbre Clarion

For every potential investor in Cbre, whether a beginner or expert, Cbre Clarion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cbre Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cbre. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cbre Clarion's price trends.

View Cbre Clarion Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cbre Clarion Global Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cbre Clarion's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cbre Clarion's current price.

Cbre Clarion Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cbre Clarion fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cbre Clarion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cbre Clarion fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Cbre Clarion Global entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cbre Clarion Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cbre Clarion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cbre Clarion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cbre fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Cbre Clarion

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cbre Clarion position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cbre Clarion will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Cbre Fund

  0.76AMEIX Equity GrowthPairCorr
  0.74FAFGX American FundsPairCorr
  0.74SAGAX Ridgeworth InnovativePairCorr
  0.74TLCYX Touchstone Large CapPairCorr
  0.72FFAFX American FundsPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cbre Clarion could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cbre Clarion when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cbre Clarion - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cbre Clarion Global to buy it.
The correlation of Cbre Clarion is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cbre Clarion moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cbre Clarion Global moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cbre Clarion can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Cbre Fund

Cbre Clarion financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cbre Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cbre with respect to the benefits of owning Cbre Clarion security.
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