IGT Old Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IGTDelisted Stock  USD 16.41  0.12  0.73%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of IGT Old on the next trading day is expected to be 15.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.16. IGT Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of IGT Old's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of IGT Old's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with IGT Old, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using IGT Old hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of IGT Old from the perspective of IGT Old response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of IGT Old on the next trading day is expected to be 15.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.16.

IGT Old after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 16.41  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.

IGT Old Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine IGT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IGT using various technical indicators. When you analyze IGT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for IGT Old is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of IGT Old value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

IGT Old Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of IGT Old on the next trading day is expected to be 15.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.16.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IGT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IGT Old's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

IGT Old Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest IGT OldIGT Old Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IGT Old stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IGT Old stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.316
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4944
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0319
SAESum of the absolute errors30.1555
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of IGT Old. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict IGT Old. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for IGT Old

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IGT Old. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.4116.4116.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.7713.7718.05
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.5915.2116.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as IGT Old. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against IGT Old's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, IGT Old's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in IGT Old.

IGT Old After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of IGT Old at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IGT Old or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of IGT Old, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

IGT Old Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting IGT Old's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IGT Old's historical news coverage. IGT Old's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.41 and 16.41, respectively. We have considered IGT Old's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.41
16.41
After-hype Price
16.41
Upside
IGT Old is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of IGT Old is based on 3 months time horizon.

IGT Old Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as IGT Old is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IGT Old backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IGT Old, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.00  
0.00
 0.00  
 0.00  
3 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.41
16.41
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

IGT Old Hype Timeline

On the 23rd of January IGT Old is traded for 16.41. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. IGT is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on IGT Old is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.41. About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.95. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. IGT Old has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.39. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of May 2025. The firm had 4:1 split on the 3rd of July 2003. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.

IGT Old Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to IGT Old's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IGT Old's future price movements. Getting to know how IGT Old's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IGT Old may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

IGT Old Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IGT Old stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IGT Old could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IGT Old by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

IGT Old Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IGT Old stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IGT Old shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IGT Old stock market strength indicators, traders can identify IGT Old entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

IGT Old Risk Indicators

The analysis of IGT Old's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IGT Old's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting igt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for IGT Old

The number of cover stories for IGT Old depends on current market conditions and IGT Old's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IGT Old is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IGT Old's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

IGT Old Short Properties

IGT Old's future price predictability will typically decrease when IGT Old's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of IGT Old often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential IGT Old's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IGT Old's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding204 M
Cash And Short Term Investments584 M
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.
You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

Other Consideration for investing in IGT Stock

If you are still planning to invest in IGT Old check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the IGT Old's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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