Intikeramik Alamasri Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| IKAI Stock | IDR 25.00 2.00 8.70% |
Intikeramik Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Intikeramik Alamasri's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Intikeramik Alamasri hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Intikeramik Alamasri Industri from the perspective of Intikeramik Alamasri response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Intikeramik Alamasri Industri on the next trading day is expected to be 26.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 191.03. Intikeramik Alamasri after-hype prediction price | IDR 25.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Intikeramik |
Intikeramik Alamasri Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Intikeramik price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Intikeramik using various technical indicators. When you analyze Intikeramik charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Intikeramik Alamasri Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Intikeramik Alamasri Industri on the next trading day is expected to be 26.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.13, mean absolute percentage error of 17.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 191.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intikeramik Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intikeramik Alamasri's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Intikeramik Alamasri Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Intikeramik Alamasri | Intikeramik Alamasri Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Intikeramik Alamasri Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Intikeramik Alamasri's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Intikeramik Alamasri's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.69 and 32.50, respectively. We have considered Intikeramik Alamasri's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intikeramik Alamasri stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intikeramik Alamasri stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0003 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1316 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1309 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 191.028 |
Predictive Modules for Intikeramik Alamasri
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intikeramik Alamasri. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Intikeramik Alamasri After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Intikeramik Alamasri at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Intikeramik Alamasri or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Intikeramik Alamasri, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Intikeramik Alamasri Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Intikeramik Alamasri's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Intikeramik Alamasri's historical news coverage. Intikeramik Alamasri's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.64 and 31.36, respectively. We have considered Intikeramik Alamasri's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Intikeramik Alamasri is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Intikeramik Alamasri is based on 3 months time horizon.
Intikeramik Alamasri Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Intikeramik Alamasri is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Intikeramik Alamasri backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Intikeramik Alamasri, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.26 | 6.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.00 | 25.00 | 0.00 |
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Intikeramik Alamasri Hype Timeline
Intikeramik Alamasri is currently traded for 25.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Intikeramik is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Intikeramik Alamasri is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.00. About 29.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.92. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Intikeramik Alamasri recorded a loss per share of 3.95. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 2:1 split on the 13th of July 2018. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Intikeramik Alamasri to cross-verify your projections.Intikeramik Alamasri Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Intikeramik Alamasri's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Intikeramik Alamasri's future price movements. Getting to know how Intikeramik Alamasri's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Intikeramik Alamasri may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KUAS | Ace Oldfields PT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.98 | (0.02) | 6.67 | (5.21) | 25.55 | |
| JAYA | Armada Berjaya Trans | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.03 | 0.12 | 12.04 | (7.69) | 49.62 | |
| LRNA | Eka Sari Lorena | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.50 | 0.06 | 22.34 | (8.66) | 46.74 | |
| SOUL | PT Mitra Tirta | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.46 | (9.20) | 19.40 | |
| TNCA | PT Trimuda Nuansa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 8.99 | (8.03) | 39.14 | |
| PPGL | Prima Globalindo Logistik | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.25 | 0.08 | 9.71 | (9.94) | 20.00 | |
| OPMS | Optima Prima Metal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.19 | 0.08 | 24.38 | (14.91) | 49.64 | |
| ARKA | Arkha Jayanti Persada | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.12 | 0.02 | 9.09 | (8.33) | 19.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Intikeramik Alamasri
For every potential investor in Intikeramik, whether a beginner or expert, Intikeramik Alamasri's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Intikeramik Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Intikeramik. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Intikeramik Alamasri's price trends.Intikeramik Alamasri Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Intikeramik Alamasri stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Intikeramik Alamasri could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Intikeramik Alamasri by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Intikeramik Alamasri Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Intikeramik Alamasri stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Intikeramik Alamasri shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Intikeramik Alamasri stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Intikeramik Alamasri Industri entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Intikeramik Alamasri Risk Indicators
The analysis of Intikeramik Alamasri's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Intikeramik Alamasri's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting intikeramik stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.37 | |||
| Variance | 40.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 52.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 25.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Intikeramik Alamasri
The number of cover stories for Intikeramik Alamasri depends on current market conditions and Intikeramik Alamasri's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Intikeramik Alamasri is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Intikeramik Alamasri's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Intikeramik Alamasri Short Properties
Intikeramik Alamasri's future price predictability will typically decrease when Intikeramik Alamasri's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Intikeramik Alamasri Industri often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Intikeramik Alamasri's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Intikeramik Alamasri's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.6 B |
Other Information on Investing in Intikeramik Stock
Intikeramik Alamasri financial ratios help investors to determine whether Intikeramik Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Intikeramik with respect to the benefits of owning Intikeramik Alamasri security.