IMCD NV Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

IMCD Stock  EUR 79.16  0.96  1.23%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of IMCD NV on the next trading day is expected to be 79.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.22. IMCD Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of IMCD NV's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 13

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of IMCD NV's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of IMCD NV and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from IMCD NV's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with IMCD NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using IMCD NV hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of IMCD NV from the perspective of IMCD NV response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of IMCD NV on the next trading day is expected to be 79.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.22.

IMCD NV after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 79.16  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IMCD NV to cross-verify your projections.

IMCD NV Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine IMCD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IMCD using various technical indicators. When you analyze IMCD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for IMCD NV - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When IMCD NV prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in IMCD NV price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of IMCD NV.

IMCD NV Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of IMCD NV on the next trading day is expected to be 79.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15, mean absolute percentage error of 2.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IMCD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IMCD NV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

IMCD NV Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest IMCD NVIMCD NV Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

IMCD NV Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting IMCD NV's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IMCD NV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.22 and 80.88, respectively. We have considered IMCD NV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
79.16
79.05
Expected Value
80.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IMCD NV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IMCD NV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2362
MADMean absolute deviation1.1537
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.014
SAESum of the absolute errors69.2195
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past IMCD NV observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older IMCD NV observations.

Predictive Modules for IMCD NV

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IMCD NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
77.3579.1680.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
57.5659.3787.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
77.6178.5279.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for IMCD NV

For every potential investor in IMCD, whether a beginner or expert, IMCD NV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IMCD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IMCD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IMCD NV's price trends.

IMCD NV Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IMCD NV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IMCD NV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IMCD NV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

IMCD NV Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of IMCD NV's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of IMCD NV's current price.

IMCD NV Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IMCD NV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IMCD NV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IMCD NV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify IMCD NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

IMCD NV Risk Indicators

The analysis of IMCD NV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IMCD NV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting imcd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for IMCD Stock Analysis

When running IMCD NV's price analysis, check to measure IMCD NV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy IMCD NV is operating at the current time. Most of IMCD NV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of IMCD NV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move IMCD NV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of IMCD NV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.