Indonesia Energy Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| INDO Stock | USD 4.64 0.06 1.28% |
Indonesia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Indonesia Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Indonesia Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Indonesia Energy fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Indonesia Energy's stock price is about 64. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Indonesia, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
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Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 10 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) |
Using Indonesia Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Indonesia Energy from the perspective of Indonesia Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Indonesia Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 4.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.16. Indonesia Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 4.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Indonesia Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Indonesia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Indonesia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Indonesia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Indonesia Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Indonesia Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 4.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Indonesia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Indonesia Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Indonesia Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Indonesia Energy | Indonesia Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Indonesia Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Indonesia Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Indonesia Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 9.73, respectively. We have considered Indonesia Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Indonesia Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Indonesia Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8702 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0412 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1194 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0345 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.1643 |
Predictive Modules for Indonesia Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Indonesia Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Indonesia Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Indonesia Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Indonesia Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Indonesia Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Indonesia Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Indonesia Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Indonesia Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Indonesia Energy's historical news coverage. Indonesia Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 9.74, respectively. We have considered Indonesia Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Indonesia Energy is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Indonesia Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Indonesia Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Indonesia Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Indonesia Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Indonesia Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.99 | 5.10 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 15 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.64 | 4.64 | 0.00 |
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Indonesia Energy Hype Timeline
Indonesia Energy is currently traded for 4.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Indonesia is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.99%. %. The volatility of related hype on Indonesia Energy is about 5862.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.55. About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Indonesia Energy was currently reported as 1.46. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.48. Indonesia Energy had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Indonesia Energy to cross-verify your projections.Indonesia Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Indonesia Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Indonesia Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Indonesia Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Indonesia Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| USEG | US Energy Corp | (0.13) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.07 | (5.05) | 13.11 | |
| PED | PEDEVCO Corp | 0.01 | 8 per month | 3.72 | 0.04 | 6.78 | (7.27) | 18.58 | |
| KLXE | KLX Energy Services | (0.20) | 7 per month | 3.93 | 0.16 | 10.85 | (7.06) | 27.68 | |
| SMXT | Solarmax Technology Common | 0.01 | 3 per month | 5.28 | 0.01 | 10.23 | (8.97) | 29.70 | |
| VVPR | VivoPower International PLC | (0.13) | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 11.84 | (11.56) | 42.45 | |
| BATL | Battalion Oil Corp | 0.09 | 5 per month | 3.11 | 0.12 | 8.18 | (6.98) | 228.01 | |
| BANL | CBL International Limited | (0.13) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.65 | (5.71) | 23.38 | |
| NINE | Nine Energy Service | (0.13) | 3 per month | 7.44 | (0.01) | 17.02 | (11.11) | 40.03 | |
| MXC | Mexco Energy | (0.13) | 3 per month | 3.47 | 0.07 | 7.03 | (7.22) | 16.16 | |
| TMDE | TMD Energy Limited | (0.13) | 3 per month | 6.34 | 0.04 | 8.00 | (10.87) | 160.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Indonesia Energy
For every potential investor in Indonesia, whether a beginner or expert, Indonesia Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Indonesia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Indonesia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Indonesia Energy's price trends.Indonesia Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Indonesia Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Indonesia Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Indonesia Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Indonesia Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Indonesia Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Indonesia Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Indonesia Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Indonesia Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Indonesia Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Indonesia Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Indonesia Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting indonesia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.97 | |||
| Variance | 24.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Indonesia Energy
The number of cover stories for Indonesia Energy depends on current market conditions and Indonesia Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Indonesia Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Indonesia Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Indonesia Energy Short Properties
Indonesia Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Indonesia Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Indonesia Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Indonesia Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Indonesia Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Indonesia Energy to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Indonesia Stock, please use our How to Invest in Indonesia Energy guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Will Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector continue expanding? Could Indonesia diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Indonesia Energy. Market participants price Indonesia higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Indonesia Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.48) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Indonesia Energy requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Indonesia's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Indonesia Energy's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Indonesia Energy's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Indonesia Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Indonesia Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Indonesia Energy's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.