Aim International Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Aim International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aim price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aim using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aim charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Aim International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aim International Mutual value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aim International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aim International Mutual on the next trading day is expected to be 37.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 1.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.37.

Aim International Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Aim International Price Prediction

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Aim International Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aim International mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aim International mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aim International Mutual. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aim International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aim International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aim International Mutual. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 33.73 36.76 39.79 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 28.44 31.47 40.49 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 29.05 34.71 40.37 Details

Aim International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Aim International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Aim International Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Aim International Hype Timeline

Aim International Mutual is currently traded for 37.03. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.63. Aim is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 36.76. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Aim International is about 196.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.40. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aim International to cross-verify your projections.

Aim International Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Aim International

For every potential investor in Aim, whether a beginner or expert, Aim International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aim Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aim. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aim International's price trends.

Aim International Related Equities

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