Inter Parfums Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| IPAR Stock | USD 98.73 0.84 0.86% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Inter Parfums on the next trading day is expected to be 87.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 222.78. Inter Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Inter Parfums' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Inter Parfums' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Inter Parfums fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Inter Parfums' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.062 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9573 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.1153 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.8574 | Wall Street Target Price 106 |
Using Inter Parfums hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Inter Parfums from the perspective of Inter Parfums response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Inter Parfums using Inter Parfums' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Inter using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Inter Parfums' stock price.
Inter Parfums Short Interest
An investor who is long Inter Parfums may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Inter Parfums and may potentially protect profits, hedge Inter Parfums with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 107.9193 | Short Percent 0.0753 | Short Ratio 4.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.5 M | 50 Day MA 84.8452 |
Inter Parfums Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Inter Parfums' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Inter. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Inter can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Inter Parfums. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Inter Parfums Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Inter Parfums' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Inter Parfums stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Inter Parfums' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Inter Parfums stock will not fluctuate a lot when Inter Parfums' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Inter Parfums on the next trading day is expected to be 87.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 222.78. Inter Parfums after-hype prediction price | USD 97.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Inter Parfums to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Inter contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Inter Parfums will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Inter Parfums trading at USD 98.73, that is roughly USD 0.0309 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Inter Parfums' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Inter Parfums options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Inter Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Inter Parfums' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Inter Parfums' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Inter Parfums stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Inter Parfums' open interest, investors have to compare it to Inter Parfums' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Inter Parfums is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Inter. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Inter Parfums Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Inter price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Inter using various technical indicators. When you analyze Inter charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Inter Parfums Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Inter Parfums on the next trading day is expected to be 87.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.65, mean absolute percentage error of 19.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 222.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Inter Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Inter Parfums' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Inter Parfums Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Inter Parfums | Inter Parfums Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Inter Parfums Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Inter Parfums' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Inter Parfums' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 85.35 and 89.20, respectively. We have considered Inter Parfums' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Inter Parfums stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Inter Parfums stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0938 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.6521 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0423 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 222.7803 |
Predictive Modules for Inter Parfums
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Inter Parfums. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Inter Parfums After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Inter Parfums at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Inter Parfums or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Inter Parfums, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Inter Parfums Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Inter Parfums' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Inter Parfums' historical news coverage. Inter Parfums' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 96.05 and 99.91, respectively. We have considered Inter Parfums' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Inter Parfums is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Inter Parfums is based on 3 months time horizon.
Inter Parfums Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Inter Parfums is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Inter Parfums backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Inter Parfums, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.93 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 35 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 35 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
98.73 | 97.98 | 0.09 |
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Inter Parfums Hype Timeline
Inter Parfums is currently traded for 98.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Inter is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 97.98 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Inter Parfums is about 821.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.75. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.45 B. Net Income was 203.43 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 822.82 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 35 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Inter Parfums to cross-verify your projections.Inter Parfums Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Inter Parfums' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Inter Parfums' future price movements. Getting to know how Inter Parfums' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Inter Parfums may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| COTY | Coty Inc | 0.09 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.61 | (4.14) | 9.89 | |
| RLX | RLX Technology | 2.14 | 38 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.45 | (2.81) | 13.76 | |
| FIZZ | National Beverage Corp | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.99 | (3.05) | 7.83 | |
| LRN | Stride Inc | 0.66 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.18 | (3.66) | 59.00 | |
| CHA | Chagee Holdings Limited | (1.30) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.04 | (4.48) | 16.14 | |
| FLO | Flowers Foods | 0.56 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.55 | (3.72) | 11.13 | |
| ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | 2.39 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.21 | (3.54) | 32.03 | |
| CCU | Compania Cervecerias Unidas | (0.24) | 9 per month | 1.48 | 0.11 | 2.62 | (2.23) | 9.52 | |
| FRPT | Freshpet | (1.14) | 12 per month | 1.92 | 0.15 | 5.43 | (3.90) | 18.92 | |
| CHEF | The Chefs Warehouse | (0.75) | 11 per month | 1.51 | 0.04 | 3.12 | (2.85) | 10.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Inter Parfums
For every potential investor in Inter, whether a beginner or expert, Inter Parfums' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Inter Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Inter. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Inter Parfums' price trends.Inter Parfums Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Inter Parfums stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Inter Parfums could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Inter Parfums by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Inter Parfums Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Inter Parfums stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Inter Parfums shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Inter Parfums stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Inter Parfums entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Inter Parfums Risk Indicators
The analysis of Inter Parfums' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Inter Parfums' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting inter stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Inter Parfums
The number of cover stories for Inter Parfums depends on current market conditions and Inter Parfums' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Inter Parfums is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Inter Parfums' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Inter Parfums Short Properties
Inter Parfums' future price predictability will typically decrease when Inter Parfums' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Inter Parfums often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Inter Parfums' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Inter Parfums' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 234.7 M |
Additional Tools for Inter Stock Analysis
When running Inter Parfums' price analysis, check to measure Inter Parfums' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Inter Parfums is operating at the current time. Most of Inter Parfums' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Inter Parfums' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Inter Parfums' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Inter Parfums to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.