International Petroleum Pink Sheet Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

IPCFF Stock  USD 11.25  0.32  2.93%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of International Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 11.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.71. International Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of International Petroleum's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for International Petroleum is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

International Petroleum 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of International Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 11.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict International Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that International Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

International Petroleum Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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International Petroleum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting International Petroleum's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. International Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.76 and 13.58, respectively. We have considered International Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.25
11.17
Expected Value
13.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of International Petroleum pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent International Petroleum pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.7012
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0684
MADMean absolute deviation0.3053
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0257
SAESum of the absolute errors17.71
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of International Petroleum. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for International Petroleum and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for International Petroleum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.8411.2513.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.319.7212.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.9710.7311.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as International Petroleum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against International Petroleum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, International Petroleum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in International Petroleum.

Other Forecasting Options for International Petroleum

For every potential investor in International, whether a beginner or expert, International Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. International Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in International. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying International Petroleum's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

International Petroleum Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of International Petroleum's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of International Petroleum's current price.

International Petroleum Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how International Petroleum pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading International Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying International Petroleum pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify International Petroleum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

International Petroleum Risk Indicators

The analysis of International Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in International Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting international pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in International Pink Sheet

International Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether International Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in International with respect to the benefits of owning International Petroleum security.