Innovator International ETF Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| ISEP ETF | 33.99 -0.04 -0.12% |
Innovator International's Polynomial Regression forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Polynomial Regression model projects Innovator International at 34.01 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Polynomial Regression output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 14th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Innovator International at 34.01 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 16.25 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Innovator International's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Innovator International | Innovator International Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The projected range for Innovator International reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The model places downside around 33.32 and upside around 34.70 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Innovator International ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9457 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2664 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.2534 |
Other Forecasting Options for Innovator International
Analyzing Innovator International's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Innovator International's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.Innovator International Comparable Funds
These peer funds are related to Innovator International and help frame its category context. Funds are typically compared on holdings mix, category returns, risk measures, and implementation cost rather than on operating-company margins.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Innovator International Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Innovator International Developed, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of ETF behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Innovator International.
Innovator International Risk Indicators
Analyzing Innovator International's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for innovator etf. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Innovator International.
| Mean Deviation | 0.496 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6528 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6876 | |||
| Variance | 0.4727 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4648 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4261 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.