IShares Aerospace ETF Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| ITA ETF | USD 225.99 2.50 1.12% |
The 4 Period Moving Average output for iShares Aerospace Defense is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects IShares Aerospace at 224.50 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. IShares Aerospace's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts IShares Aerospace at 224.50 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 3.95 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 228.98 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks IShares Aerospace's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IShares Aerospace | IShares Aerospace Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
IShares Aerospace's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 222.85 and upside around 226.14 for the next session. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for IShares Aerospace ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7829 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5459 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.9478 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 228.975 |
Other Forecasting Options for IShares Aerospace
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of IShares ETF price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When IShares Aerospace's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in IShares Aerospace's returns tend to persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.IShares Aerospace Comparable Funds
These peer funds help position IShares Aerospace within a broader category rather than against operating businesses. Useful comparisons usually include net asset value behavior, total return, volatility, distribution profile, and leverage. The most informative gaps tend to appear in total return, risk-adjusted return, and distribution consistency. The resulting view is more helpful for fund analysis than a generic industry-company comparison.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IShares Aerospace Market Strength Events
Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for IShares Aerospace reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing IShares Aerospace near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for IShares Aerospace.
IShares Aerospace Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for IShares Aerospace quantifies how much price variability the ETF has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in IShares Aerospace have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as IShares Aerospace's price.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Variance | 2.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.