Italgas SpA OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ITGGF Stock | USD 12.05 1.25 11.57% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Italgas SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 12.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.31. Italgas OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Italgas SpA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the value of rsi of Italgas SpA's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the otc stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Italgas SpA based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Italgas SpA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Italgas SpA from the perspective of Italgas SpA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Italgas SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 12.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.31. Italgas SpA after-hype prediction price | USD 12.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Italgas |
Italgas SpA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Italgas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Italgas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Italgas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Italgas SpA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Italgas SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 12.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Italgas OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Italgas SpA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Italgas SpA OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Italgas SpA | Italgas SpA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Italgas SpA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Italgas SpA's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Italgas SpA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.20 and 13.90, respectively. We have considered Italgas SpA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Italgas SpA otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Italgas SpA otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0489 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0308 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0552 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0049 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.31 |
Predictive Modules for Italgas SpA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Italgas SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Italgas SpA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Italgas SpA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Italgas SpA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Italgas SpA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Italgas SpA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Italgas SpA's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Italgas SpA's historical news coverage. Italgas SpA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.20 and 13.90, respectively. We have considered Italgas SpA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Italgas SpA is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Italgas SpA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Italgas SpA OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Italgas SpA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Italgas SpA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Italgas SpA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.05 | 12.05 | 0.00 |
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Italgas SpA Hype Timeline
Italgas SpA is currently traded for 12.05. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Italgas is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Italgas SpA is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.05. About 43.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Italgas SpA to cross-verify your projections.Italgas SpA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Italgas SpA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Italgas SpA's future price movements. Getting to know how Italgas SpA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Italgas SpA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XNGSF | ENN Energy Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.08 | (5.42) | 17.66 | |
| XNGSY | ENN Energy Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | (0.04) | 2.09 | (1.95) | 5.71 | |
| TKGSF | Tokyo Gas CoLtd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.24 | |
| ATGFF | AltaGas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.84 | (1.95) | 5.12 | |
| PNAGF | PETRONAS Gas Berhad | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 25.18 | |
| OSGSF | Osaka Gas Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.35 | |
| AEE | Ameren Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.09 | (1.45) | 5.74 | |
| RDEIY | Red Electrica Corporacion | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.41 | (2.09) | 7.36 | |
| HPIFF | Huadian Power International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ENGGY | Enagas SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.03 | (2.20) | 5.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Italgas SpA
For every potential investor in Italgas, whether a beginner or expert, Italgas SpA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Italgas OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Italgas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Italgas SpA's price trends.Italgas SpA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Italgas SpA otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Italgas SpA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Italgas SpA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Italgas SpA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Italgas SpA otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Italgas SpA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Italgas SpA otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Italgas SpA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.12 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.63 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.25 |
Italgas SpA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Italgas SpA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Italgas SpA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting italgas otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8084 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Italgas SpA
The number of cover stories for Italgas SpA depends on current market conditions and Italgas SpA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Italgas SpA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Italgas SpA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Italgas OTC Stock
Italgas SpA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Italgas OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Italgas with respect to the benefits of owning Italgas SpA security.