Iterum Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ITRM Stock | USD 0.34 0.02 5.56% |
Iterum Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Iterum Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Iterum Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Iterum Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Iterum Therapeutics' share price is approaching 40. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Iterum Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.66) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.31) | Wall Street Target Price 5.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.09) |
Using Iterum Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Iterum Therapeutics PLC from the perspective of Iterum Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Iterum Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Iterum Therapeutics PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.21.Iterum Therapeutics PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Iterum Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Iterum. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Iterum can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Iterum Therapeutics PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Iterum Therapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Iterum Therapeutics.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Iterum Therapeutics PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.21. Iterum Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 0.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iterum Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Iterum Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Iterum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Iterum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Iterum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Iterum Therapeutics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Iterum Therapeutics PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Iterum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Iterum Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Iterum Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Iterum Therapeutics | Iterum Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Iterum Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Iterum Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Iterum Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.62, respectively. We have considered Iterum Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Iterum Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Iterum Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.097 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0052 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0202 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0491 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.21 |
Predictive Modules for Iterum Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Iterum Therapeutics PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Iterum Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Iterum Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Iterum Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Iterum Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Iterum Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Iterum Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Iterum Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Iterum Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 6.69, respectively. We have considered Iterum Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Iterum Therapeutics is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Iterum Therapeutics PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Iterum Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Iterum Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Iterum Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Iterum Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.86 | 6.28 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.34 | 0.36 | 7.14 |
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Iterum Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Iterum Therapeutics PLC is currently traded for 0.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Iterum is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 7.14%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.86%. The volatility of related hype on Iterum Therapeutics is about 10129.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.29. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iterum Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Iterum Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Iterum Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Iterum Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Iterum Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Iterum Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INTS | Intensity Therapeutics Common | 0.02 | 6 per month | 8.56 | 0.09 | 12.20 | (14.04) | 433.59 | |
| IBIO | iBio Common Stock | (0.06) | 6 per month | 6.77 | 0.13 | 25.23 | (11.24) | 59.00 | |
| RLYB | Rallybio Corp | (0.01) | 6 per month | 2.96 | 0.06 | 8.33 | (5.71) | 21.25 | |
| PLUR | Pluri Inc | (0.39) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 9.30 | (6.23) | 31.25 | |
| ANTX | AN2 Therapeutics | (0.02) | 10 per month | 3.35 | (0) | 5.56 | (4.58) | 32.31 | |
| BOLD | Boundless Bio Common | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.13 | (5.11) | 16.75 | |
| SONN | Sonnet Biotherapeutics Holdings | (0.58) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 19.48 | (18.21) | 69.59 | |
| TAOX | TAO Synergies | 0.84 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 12.66 | (10.43) | 36.28 | |
| QTTB | Q32 Bio | (0.43) | 9 per month | 5.30 | 0.07 | 7.51 | (8.96) | 85.16 | |
| KLTO | Klotho Neurosciences | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 10.34 | (8.57) | 28.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for Iterum Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Iterum, whether a beginner or expert, Iterum Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Iterum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Iterum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Iterum Therapeutics' price trends.Iterum Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Iterum Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Iterum Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Iterum Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Iterum Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Iterum Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Iterum Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Iterum Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Iterum Therapeutics PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 46529.56 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.34 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.34 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.73 |
Iterum Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Iterum Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Iterum Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting iterum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.06 | |||
| Variance | 36.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Iterum Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Iterum Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Iterum Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Iterum Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Iterum Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Iterum Therapeutics Short Properties
Iterum Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Iterum Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Iterum Therapeutics PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Iterum Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Iterum Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iterum Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Iterum Therapeutics. If investors know Iterum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Iterum Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.72) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Iterum Therapeutics PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Iterum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Iterum Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Iterum Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Iterum Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Iterum Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Iterum Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Iterum Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Iterum Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.