IShares Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| IVEG Etf | USD 21.60 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of IShares on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.39. IShares Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of IShares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 25th of January 2026 the relative strength momentum indicator of IShares' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using IShares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of IShares from the perspective of IShares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards IShares using IShares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards IShares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of IShares' stock price.
IShares Implied Volatility | 0.33 |
IShares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of IShares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if IShares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that IShares stock will not fluctuate a lot when IShares' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of IShares on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.39. IShares after-hype prediction price | $ 21.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current IShares contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that IShares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0206% per day over the life of the 2026-02-20 option contract. With IShares trading at $ 21.6, that is roughly $ 0.004455 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating IShares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring IShares options at the current volatility level of 0.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 IShares Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast IShares' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in IShares' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for IShares stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current IShares' open interest, investors have to compare it to IShares' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of IShares is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in IShares. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
IShares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine IShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze IShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
IShares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of IShares on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IShares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
IShares Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IShares | IShares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IShares etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IShares etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1899 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1867 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.391 |
Predictive Modules for IShares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IShares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of IShares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
IShares After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of IShares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IShares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of IShares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
IShares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting IShares' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IShares' historical news coverage. IShares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.60 and 21.60, respectively. We have considered IShares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
IShares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of IShares is based on 3 months time horizon.
IShares Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as IShares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IShares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IShares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.60 | 21.60 | 0.00 |
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IShares Hype Timeline
IShares is currently traded for 21.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. IShares is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on IShares is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.60. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.IShares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to IShares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IShares' future price movements. Getting to know how IShares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IShares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRND | IndexIQ | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MTVR | Exchange Traded Concepts | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| XDJL | Innovator Capital Management | 0.15 | 1 per month | 1.95 | 0.03 | 2.35 | (2.91) | 15.34 | |
| DSOC | Innovator Capital Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| KESG | KraneShares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FYLG | Global X | 0.16 | 1 per month | 0.65 | (0.04) | 0.90 | (0.59) | 4.09 | |
| VIRS | Pacer Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| URAX | Defiance ETFs | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.67 | (9.05) | 30.97 | |
| RAYS | Global X | 0.04 | 2 per month | 1.47 | 0.14 | 3.32 | (2.89) | 9.36 | |
| OFOS | Exchange Traded Concepts | (0.03) | 1 per month | 2.96 | (0.02) | 4.18 | (3.52) | 18.84 |
IShares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IShares etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IShares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IShares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IShares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IShares etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IShares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IShares etf market strength indicators, traders can identify IShares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
IShares Risk Indicators
The analysis of IShares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IShares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ishares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6087 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7586 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8077 | |||
| Variance | 0.6524 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7233 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5754 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IShares
The number of cover stories for IShares depends on current market conditions and IShares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IShares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IShares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
The market value of IShares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of IShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of IShares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is IShares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because IShares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect IShares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between IShares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if IShares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, IShares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.