Overseas Portfolio Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

JAIGX Fund  USD 60.70  0.14  0.23%   
Overseas Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Overseas Portfolio's mutual fund price is slightly above 66. This indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Overseas, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 66

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Overseas Portfolio's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Overseas Portfolio Institutional, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Overseas Portfolio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Overseas Portfolio Institutional from the perspective of Overseas Portfolio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Overseas Portfolio Institutional on the next trading day is expected to be 61.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.47.

Overseas Portfolio after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 60.75  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Overseas Portfolio to cross-verify your projections.

Overseas Portfolio Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Overseas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Overseas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Overseas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Overseas Portfolio price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Overseas Portfolio Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Overseas Portfolio Institutional on the next trading day is expected to be 61.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Overseas Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Overseas Portfolio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Overseas Portfolio Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Overseas Portfolio  Overseas Portfolio Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Overseas Portfolio Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Overseas Portfolio's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Overseas Portfolio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.58 and 61.83, respectively. We have considered Overseas Portfolio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
60.70
61.20
Expected Value
61.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Overseas Portfolio mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Overseas Portfolio mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.5001
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3683
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0064
SAESum of the absolute errors22.4656
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Overseas Portfolio Institutional historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Overseas Portfolio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Overseas Portfolio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
60.1260.7561.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.5559.1866.77
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
53.6060.3561.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Overseas Portfolio. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Overseas Portfolio's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Overseas Portfolio's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Overseas Portfolio.

Overseas Portfolio After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Overseas Portfolio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Overseas Portfolio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Overseas Portfolio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Overseas Portfolio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Overseas Portfolio's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Overseas Portfolio's historical news coverage. Overseas Portfolio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.12 and 61.38, respectively. We have considered Overseas Portfolio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
60.70
60.75
After-hype Price
61.38
Upside
Overseas Portfolio is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Overseas Portfolio is based on 3 months time horizon.

Overseas Portfolio Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Overseas Portfolio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Overseas Portfolio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Overseas Portfolio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
0.63
  0.05 
  3.72 
1 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
60.70
60.75
0.08 
262.50  
Notes

Overseas Portfolio Hype Timeline

Overseas Portfolio is currently traded for 60.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 3.72. Overseas is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 60.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Overseas Portfolio is about 3.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 64.42. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Overseas Portfolio to cross-verify your projections.

Overseas Portfolio Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Overseas Portfolio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Overseas Portfolio's future price movements. Getting to know how Overseas Portfolio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Overseas Portfolio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BSCFXBaron Small Cap 26.46 7 per month 0.90  0.08  2.41 (1.93) 12.61 
JCNIXJanus Trarian Fund 0.37 1 per month 0.97  0.09  1.96 (2.08) 14.44 
JMVAXPerkins Mid Cap 0.03 1 per month 0.43  0.16  1.79 (1.03) 3.75 
DVLRXDelaware Small Cap(55.34)2 per month 0.00  0.20  2.27 (1.27) 15.86 
JDPRXPerkins Mid Cap 126.28 3 per month 0.41  0.16  1.64 (1.02) 3.67 
BARIXBaron Asset Fund(0.33)1 per month 0.45  0.11  1.64 (1.22) 13.40 
JCNAXJanus Trarian Fund 0.00 0 per month 0.95  0.1  1.99 (2.07) 14.45 
JDPNXPerkins Mid Cap 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.20  1.81 (1.04) 11.40 
JCNNXJanus Investment 98.30 2 per month 1.09  0.0005  1.89 (2.07) 5.24 
JCONXJanus Trarian Fund(0.08)1 per month 0.97  0.1  1.98 (2.09) 14.33 

Other Forecasting Options for Overseas Portfolio

For every potential investor in Overseas, whether a beginner or expert, Overseas Portfolio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Overseas Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Overseas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Overseas Portfolio's price trends.

Overseas Portfolio Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Overseas Portfolio mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Overseas Portfolio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Overseas Portfolio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Overseas Portfolio Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Overseas Portfolio mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Overseas Portfolio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Overseas Portfolio mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Overseas Portfolio Institutional entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Overseas Portfolio Risk Indicators

The analysis of Overseas Portfolio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Overseas Portfolio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting overseas mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Overseas Portfolio

The number of cover stories for Overseas Portfolio depends on current market conditions and Overseas Portfolio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Overseas Portfolio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Overseas Portfolio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Overseas Mutual Fund

Overseas Portfolio financial ratios help investors to determine whether Overseas Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Overseas with respect to the benefits of owning Overseas Portfolio security.
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