Innovator Equity Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JAJL Etf | 29.13 0.02 0.07% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovator Equity Defined on the next trading day is expected to be 29.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.80. Innovator Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength momentum indicator of Innovator Equity's share price is at 58. This indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Innovator Equity, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Innovator Equity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Innovator Equity Defined from the perspective of Innovator Equity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovator Equity Defined on the next trading day is expected to be 29.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.80. Innovator Equity after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Innovator | Build AI portfolio with Innovator Etf |
Innovator Equity Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Innovator price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Innovator using various technical indicators. When you analyze Innovator charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Innovator Equity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovator Equity Defined on the next trading day is expected to be 29.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Innovator Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Innovator Equity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Innovator Equity Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Innovator Equity | Innovator Equity Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Innovator Equity Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Innovator Equity's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Innovator Equity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.03 and 29.26, respectively. We have considered Innovator Equity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Innovator Equity etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Innovator Equity etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.4921 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0295 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.001 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.8011 |
Predictive Modules for Innovator Equity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Innovator Equity Defined. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Innovator Equity After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Innovator Equity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Innovator Equity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Innovator Equity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Innovator Equity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Innovator Equity's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Innovator Equity's historical news coverage. Innovator Equity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 0.12, respectively. We have considered Innovator Equity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Innovator Equity is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Innovator Equity Defined is based on 3 months time horizon.
Innovator Equity Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Innovator Equity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Innovator Equity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Innovator Equity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
29.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Innovator Equity Hype Timeline
Innovator Equity Defined is currently traded for 29.13. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Innovator is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Innovator Equity is about 545.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.13. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovator Equity to cross-verify your projections.Innovator Equity Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Innovator Equity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Innovator Equity's future price movements. Getting to know how Innovator Equity's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Innovator Equity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UAUG | Innovator Equity Ultra | 0.06 | 2 per month | 0.23 | (0.23) | 0.46 | (0.53) | 1.63 | |
| BAUG | Innovator Equity Buffer | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.43 | (0.17) | 0.68 | (0.76) | 2.32 | |
| GAUG | FT Cboe Vest | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.31 | (0.24) | 0.54 | (0.49) | 1.82 | |
| UJAN | Innovator SP 500 | 0.06 | 5 per month | 0.17 | (0.24) | 0.45 | (0.35) | 1.58 | |
| GNOV | FT Cboe Vest | 0.08 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 0.49 | (0.38) | 2.02 | |
| NJUL | Innovator Nasdaq 100 Power | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.38 | (0.18) | 0.54 | (0.71) | 2.11 | |
| BJAN | Innovator SP 500 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.35 | (0.11) | 0.68 | (0.68) | 2.41 | |
| ADME | Aptus Drawdown Managed | (0.09) | 2 per month | 0.65 | (0.12) | 0.75 | (1.17) | 3.07 | |
| DJUN | FT Cboe Vest | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.15 | (0.34) | 0.42 | (0.36) | 1.23 | |
| PAPI | Morgan Stanley ETF | 0.05 | 3 per month | 0.43 | 0.02 | 1.33 | (1.02) | 2.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Innovator Equity
For every potential investor in Innovator, whether a beginner or expert, Innovator Equity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Innovator Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Innovator. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Innovator Equity's price trends.Innovator Equity Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Innovator Equity etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Innovator Equity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Innovator Equity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Innovator Equity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Innovator Equity etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Innovator Equity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Innovator Equity etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Innovator Equity Defined entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Innovator Equity Risk Indicators
The analysis of Innovator Equity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Innovator Equity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting innovator etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0851 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1158 | |||
| Variance | 0.0134 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0193 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.01) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Innovator Equity
The number of cover stories for Innovator Equity depends on current market conditions and Innovator Equity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Innovator Equity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Innovator Equity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovator Equity to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
The market value of Innovator Equity Defined is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Innovator that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Innovator Equity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Innovator Equity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Innovator Equity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Innovator Equity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Innovator Equity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Innovator Equity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Innovator Equity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.