Classic Value Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

JCVIX Fund  USD 19.90  0.17  0.86%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Classic Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 20.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.23. Classic Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Classic Value's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Classic Value's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Classic Value Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Classic Value hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Classic Value Fund from the perspective of Classic Value response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Classic Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 20.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.23.

Classic Value after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 28.96  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Classic Value to cross-verify your projections.

Classic Value Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Classic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Classic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Classic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Classic Value price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Classic Value Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Classic Value Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 20.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.63, mean absolute percentage error of 3.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Classic Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Classic Value's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Classic Value Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Classic ValueClassic Value Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Classic Value Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Classic Value's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Classic Value's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.89 and 27.31, respectively. We have considered Classic Value's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.90
20.60
Expected Value
27.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Classic Value mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Classic Value mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.1989
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.6327
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1144
SAESum of the absolute errors101.2278
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Classic Value Fund historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Classic Value

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Classic Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.9128.9635.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.1421.8528.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.1517.0824.01
Details

Classic Value After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Classic Value at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Classic Value or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Classic Value, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Classic Value Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Classic Value's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Classic Value's historical news coverage. Classic Value's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.91 and 35.67, respectively. We have considered Classic Value's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
19.90
28.96
After-hype Price
35.67
Upside
Classic Value is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Classic Value is based on 3 months time horizon.

Classic Value Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Classic Value is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Classic Value backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Classic Value, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.93 
6.71
  116.45 
  10.39 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
19.90
28.59
43.66 
5.36  
Notes

Classic Value Hype Timeline

Classic Value is currently traded for 19.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 116.45, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 10.39. Classic is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.588 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 5.36%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 43.66%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.93%. The volatility of related hype on Classic Value is about 60.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.29. Debt can assist Classic Value until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Classic Value's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Classic Value sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Classic to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Classic Value's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Classic Value to cross-verify your projections.

Classic Value Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Classic Value's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Classic Value's future price movements. Getting to know how Classic Value's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Classic Value may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Classic Value

For every potential investor in Classic, whether a beginner or expert, Classic Value's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Classic Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Classic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Classic Value's price trends.

Classic Value Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Classic Value mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Classic Value could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Classic Value by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Classic Value Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Classic Value mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Classic Value shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Classic Value mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Classic Value Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Classic Value Risk Indicators

The analysis of Classic Value's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Classic Value's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting classic mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Classic Value

The number of cover stories for Classic Value depends on current market conditions and Classic Value's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Classic Value is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Classic Value's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Classic Mutual Fund

Classic Value financial ratios help investors to determine whether Classic Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Classic with respect to the benefits of owning Classic Value security.
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