JJill Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JILL Stock | USD 15.52 0.24 1.52% |
JJill Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although JJill's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of JJill's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of JJill fundamentals over time.
As of now, The value of RSI of JJill's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling JJill, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.332 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.756 | Wall Street Target Price 18 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.592 |
Using JJill hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of JJill Inc from the perspective of JJill response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of JJill Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 15.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.49. JJill after-hype prediction price | USD 15.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JJill to cross-verify your projections. JJill Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine JJill price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for JJill using various technical indicators. When you analyze JJill charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
JJill Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the JJill's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2015-01-31 | Previous Quarter 45.5 M | Current Value 58 M | Quarterly Volatility 24.2 M |
JJill Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JJill Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 15.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JJill Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JJill's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
JJill Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest JJill | JJill Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
JJill Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting JJill's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JJill's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.93 and 18.19, respectively. We have considered JJill's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JJill stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JJill stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3299 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.549 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.037 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.4914 |
Predictive Modules for JJill
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JJill Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JJill After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of JJill at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in JJill or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of JJill, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
JJill Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting JJill's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on JJill's historical news coverage. JJill's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.57 and 18.87, respectively. We have considered JJill's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
JJill is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of JJill Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
JJill Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as JJill is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading JJill backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with JJill, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 3.13 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.52 | 15.72 | 0.25 |
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JJill Hype Timeline
JJill Inc is currently traded for 15.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. JJill is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on JJill is about 14904.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.52. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.86. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. JJill Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.63. The entity last dividend was issued on the 24th of December 2025. The firm had 1:5 split on the 10th of November 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JJill to cross-verify your projections.JJill Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to JJill's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict JJill's future price movements. Getting to know how JJill's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how JJill may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DBI | Designer Brands | (0.51) | 8 per month | 3.42 | 0.15 | 10.60 | (6.37) | 57.50 | |
| HBB | Hamilton Beach Brands | (0.30) | 6 per month | 1.92 | 0.11 | 5.68 | (3.74) | 17.33 | |
| PLCE | Childrens Place | 0.16 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.27 | (8.42) | 49.46 | |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries | 0.82 | 8 per month | 1.72 | 0.05 | 5.22 | (3.18) | 9.20 | |
| JAKK | JAKKS Pacific | 0.14 | 6 per month | 2.19 | (0.01) | 4.74 | (4.54) | 11.05 | |
| CRMT | Americas Car Mart | (0.43) | 9 per month | 3.37 | 0.01 | 7.71 | (5.55) | 18.39 | |
| BZUN | Baozun Inc | (0.17) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.10 | (4.10) | 11.42 | |
| FNKO | Funko Inc | (0.04) | 10 per month | 2.90 | 0.13 | 10.69 | (5.35) | 20.38 | |
| SGC | Superior Uniform Group | 0.59 | 10 per month | 2.45 | (0.03) | 5.18 | (4.24) | 12.75 | |
| AIIO | Roboai Inc | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.62 | (15.79) | 75.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for JJill
For every potential investor in JJill, whether a beginner or expert, JJill's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JJill Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JJill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JJill's price trends.JJill Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JJill stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JJill could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JJill by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
JJill Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JJill stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JJill shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JJill stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JJill Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1168.03 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.75) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.55 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.17) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.82 |
JJill Risk Indicators
The analysis of JJill's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JJill's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jjill stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Variance | 9.77 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for JJill
The number of cover stories for JJill depends on current market conditions and JJill's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that JJill is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about JJill's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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JJill Short Properties
JJill's future price predictability will typically decrease when JJill's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of JJill Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential JJill's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JJill's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 35.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JJill to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JJill. If investors know JJill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JJill listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | Dividend Share 0.31 | Earnings Share 2.18 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of JJill Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JJill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JJill's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JJill's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JJill's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JJill's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JJill's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JJill is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JJill's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.