JPMorgan Momentum Etf Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| JMOM Etf | USD 70.75 0.68 0.97% |
JPMorgan Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength momentum indicator of JPMorgan Momentum's share price is at 56. This indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling JPMorgan Momentum, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using JPMorgan Momentum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of JPMorgan Momentum Factor from the perspective of JPMorgan Momentum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of JPMorgan Momentum Factor on the next trading day is expected to be 70.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.86. JPMorgan Momentum after-hype prediction price | USD 70.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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JPMorgan Momentum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine JPMorgan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for JPMorgan using various technical indicators. When you analyze JPMorgan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
JPMorgan Momentum Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of JPMorgan Momentum Factor on the next trading day is expected to be 70.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JPMorgan Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JPMorgan Momentum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
JPMorgan Momentum Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest JPMorgan Momentum | JPMorgan Momentum Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
JPMorgan Momentum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting JPMorgan Momentum's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JPMorgan Momentum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.91 and 71.59, respectively. We have considered JPMorgan Momentum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JPMorgan Momentum etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JPMorgan Momentum etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5901 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0801 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.523 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0076 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.855 |
Predictive Modules for JPMorgan Momentum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JPMorgan Momentum Factor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JPMorgan Momentum After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of JPMorgan Momentum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in JPMorgan Momentum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of JPMorgan Momentum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
JPMorgan Momentum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting JPMorgan Momentum's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on JPMorgan Momentum's historical news coverage. JPMorgan Momentum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 69.24 and 70.90, respectively. We have considered JPMorgan Momentum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
JPMorgan Momentum is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of JPMorgan Momentum Factor is based on 3 months time horizon.
JPMorgan Momentum Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as JPMorgan Momentum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading JPMorgan Momentum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with JPMorgan Momentum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 26 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 26 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
70.75 | 70.07 | 0.00 |
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JPMorgan Momentum Hype Timeline
JPMorgan Momentum Factor is currently traded for 70.75. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. JPMorgan is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on JPMorgan Momentum is about 321.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.77. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 26 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JPMorgan Momentum to cross-verify your projections.JPMorgan Momentum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to JPMorgan Momentum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict JPMorgan Momentum's future price movements. Getting to know how JPMorgan Momentum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how JPMorgan Momentum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JPEF | JPMorgan Equity Focus | 0.21 | 2 per month | 0.79 | (0.06) | 1.02 | (1.21) | 3.90 | |
| IYJ | iShares Industrials ETF | 1.36 | 3 per month | 0.83 | 0.02 | 1.67 | (1.34) | 4.14 | |
| RPG | Invesco SP 500 | (0.04) | 4 per month | 1.21 | (0.03) | 1.46 | (2.03) | 3.79 | |
| EWA | iShares MSCI Australia | (0.12) | 6 per month | 0.92 | 0.01 | 1.39 | (1.59) | 3.80 | |
| BALT | Innovator Defined Wealth | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 0.30 | (0.30) | 0.78 | |
| PXH | Invesco FTSE RAFI | 0.16 | 4 per month | 0.68 | 0.08 | 1.44 | (1.08) | 3.02 | |
| SPUS | SP Funds SP | (0.09) | 2 per month | 1.05 | (0.04) | 1.23 | (1.64) | 4.29 | |
| SMMD | iShares Russell 2500 | (0.02) | 4 per month | 0.88 | 0.03 | 1.64 | (1.56) | 3.71 | |
| FXU | First Trust Utilities | 0.41 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.03 | (1.21) | 3.28 | |
| IYC | iShares Consumer Discretionary | 0.73 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.49 | (1.55) | 3.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for JPMorgan Momentum
For every potential investor in JPMorgan, whether a beginner or expert, JPMorgan Momentum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JPMorgan Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JPMorgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JPMorgan Momentum's price trends.JPMorgan Momentum Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JPMorgan Momentum etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JPMorgan Momentum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JPMorgan Momentum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
JPMorgan Momentum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JPMorgan Momentum etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JPMorgan Momentum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JPMorgan Momentum etf market strength indicators, traders can identify JPMorgan Momentum Factor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
JPMorgan Momentum Risk Indicators
The analysis of JPMorgan Momentum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JPMorgan Momentum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jpmorgan etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.652 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9415 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.841 | |||
| Variance | 0.7072 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9427 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8865 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for JPMorgan Momentum
The number of cover stories for JPMorgan Momentum depends on current market conditions and JPMorgan Momentum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that JPMorgan Momentum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about JPMorgan Momentum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JPMorgan Momentum to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Investors evaluate JPMorgan Momentum Factor using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating JPMorgan Momentum's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause JPMorgan Momentum's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that JPMorgan Momentum's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether JPMorgan Momentum represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, JPMorgan Momentum's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.