The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Johnson Matthey Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 30.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.00. Johnson Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Johnson Matthey's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Johnson
Johnson Matthey simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Johnson Matthey Plc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Johnson Matthey Plc prices get older.
Johnson Matthey Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Johnson Matthey Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 30.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Matthey's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
In the context of forecasting Johnson Matthey's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Johnson Matthey's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.82 and 31.18, respectively. We have considered Johnson Matthey's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Matthey pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Matthey pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
114.0549
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
-0.0667
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
0.0667
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.0023
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
4.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Johnson Matthey Plc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Johnson Matthey observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.
Predictive Modules for Johnson Matthey
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Matthey Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
For every potential investor in Johnson, whether a beginner or expert, Johnson Matthey's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Johnson Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Johnson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Johnson Matthey's price trends.
Johnson Matthey Plc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Johnson Matthey's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Johnson Matthey's current price.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Johnson Matthey pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Johnson Matthey shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Johnson Matthey pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Johnson Matthey Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
The analysis of Johnson Matthey's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Johnson Matthey's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting johnson pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Other Information on Investing in Johnson Pink Sheet
Johnson Matthey financial ratios help investors to determine whether Johnson Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Johnson with respect to the benefits of owning Johnson Matthey security.