Virtus ETF Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JOET Etf | USD 42.88 0.18 0.42% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Virtus ETF Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 42.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.98. Virtus Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Virtus ETF's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Virtus ETF hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virtus ETF Trust from the perspective of Virtus ETF response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Virtus ETF using Virtus ETF's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Virtus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Virtus ETF's stock price.
Virtus ETF Implied Volatility | 0.45 |
Virtus ETF's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Virtus ETF Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Virtus ETF's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Virtus ETF stock will not fluctuate a lot when Virtus ETF's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Virtus ETF Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 42.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.98. Virtus ETF after-hype prediction price | USD 42.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus ETF to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Virtus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Virtus ETF Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Virtus ETF trading at USD 42.88, that is roughly USD 0.0121 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Virtus ETF's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Virtus ETF Trust options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Virtus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Virtus ETF's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Virtus ETF's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Virtus ETF stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Virtus ETF's open interest, investors have to compare it to Virtus ETF's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Virtus ETF is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Virtus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Virtus ETF Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Virtus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virtus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virtus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virtus ETF Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Virtus ETF Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 42.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virtus Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virtus ETF's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virtus ETF Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Virtus ETF | Virtus ETF Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Virtus ETF Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virtus ETF's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virtus ETF's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.14 and 43.78, respectively. We have considered Virtus ETF's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virtus ETF etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virtus ETF etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2311 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3222 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0077 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.9787 |
Predictive Modules for Virtus ETF
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus ETF Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virtus ETF's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Virtus ETF After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Virtus ETF at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virtus ETF or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Virtus ETF, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Virtus ETF Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Virtus ETF's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virtus ETF's historical news coverage. Virtus ETF's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.06 and 43.70, respectively. We have considered Virtus ETF's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Virtus ETF is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virtus ETF Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Virtus ETF Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Virtus ETF is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virtus ETF backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virtus ETF, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
42.88 | 42.88 | 0.00 |
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Virtus ETF Hype Timeline
Virtus ETF Trust is currently traded for 42.88. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Virtus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 48.81%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Virtus ETF is about 262.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.88. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus ETF to cross-verify your projections.Virtus ETF Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Virtus ETF's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virtus ETF's future price movements. Getting to know how Virtus ETF's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virtus ETF may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PABD | iShares Paris Aligned Climate | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.69 | 0.01 | 1.31 | (1.35) | 3.10 | |
| GDIV | Harbor Dividend Growth | (0.10) | 1 per month | 0.59 | 0.03 | 1.18 | (1.06) | 3.05 | |
| DRLL | EA Series Trust | 1.68 | 10 per month | 1.06 | 0.07 | 2.24 | (1.62) | 5.56 | |
| QUVU | Hartford Quality Value | 0.13 | 2 per month | 0.49 | 0.05 | 1.15 | (1.07) | 3.38 | |
| CGV | Two Roads Shared | 0.03 | 1 per month | 0.51 | 0.14 | 1.25 | (1.07) | 5.29 | |
| SMCO | Hilton Small MidCap Opportunity | 0.27 | 3 per month | 0.96 | 0.04 | 1.56 | (1.66) | 4.18 | |
| CPLS | AB Core Plus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 0.31 | (0.31) | 0.82 | |
| SPYT | Tidal Trust II | (0.07) | 1 per month | 0.66 | (0.07) | 1.10 | (1.03) | 3.37 | |
| SHOC | EA Series Trust | (4.93) | 4 per month | 2.06 | 0.07 | 3.07 | (3.74) | 10.30 | |
| HECO | SPDR Galaxy Hedged | (0.14) | 3 per month | 2.37 | (0.01) | 4.27 | (3.80) | 12.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for Virtus ETF
For every potential investor in Virtus, whether a beginner or expert, Virtus ETF's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virtus Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virtus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virtus ETF's price trends.Virtus ETF Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virtus ETF etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virtus ETF could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virtus ETF by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virtus ETF Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virtus ETF etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virtus ETF shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virtus ETF etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Virtus ETF Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 143.77 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.69) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 42.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 42.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.18) |
Virtus ETF Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virtus ETF's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virtus ETF's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virtus etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6423 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8081 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8076 | |||
| Variance | 0.6523 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7272 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6531 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Virtus ETF
The number of cover stories for Virtus ETF depends on current market conditions and Virtus ETF's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virtus ETF is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virtus ETF's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus ETF to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Virtus Etf please use our How to Invest in Virtus ETF guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
The market value of Virtus ETF Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Virtus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Virtus ETF's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Virtus ETF's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Virtus ETF's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Virtus ETF's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virtus ETF's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virtus ETF is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virtus ETF's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.