Journey Energy Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| JOY Stock | CAD 3.39 0.08 2.42% |
Journey Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Journey Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Journey Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Journey Energy fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Journey Energy's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.156 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.28 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.155 | Wall Street Target Price 4.475 |
Using Journey Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Journey Energy from the perspective of Journey Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Journey Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 3.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.86. Journey Energy after-hype prediction price | CAD 3.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Journey |
Journey Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Journey price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Journey using various technical indicators. When you analyze Journey charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Journey Energy Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Journey Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 3.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Journey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Journey Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Journey Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Journey Energy | Journey Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Journey Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Journey Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Journey Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.92 and 6.34, respectively. We have considered Journey Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Journey Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Journey Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1336 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1124 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0327 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.8578 |
Predictive Modules for Journey Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Journey Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Journey Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Journey Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Journey Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Journey Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Journey Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Journey Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Journey Energy's historical news coverage. Journey Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.65 and 6.11, respectively. We have considered Journey Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Journey Energy is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Journey Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Journey Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Journey Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Journey Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Journey Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.71 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.39 | 3.38 | 0.29 |
|
Journey Energy Hype Timeline
Journey Energy is currently traded for 3.39on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Journey is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Journey Energy is about 135500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.39. About 22.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.66. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Journey Energy last dividend was issued on the 28th of September 2015. The entity had 3:2 split on the 13th of December 2005. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Journey Energy to cross-verify your projections.Journey Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Journey Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Journey Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Journey Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Journey Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RBY | Rubellite Energy | 0.01 | 5 per month | 1.61 | (0) | 2.99 | (2.88) | 7.91 | |
| ALV | Alvopetro Energy | 0.01 | 6 per month | 1.40 | 0.1 | 3.22 | (2.45) | 7.49 | |
| GASX | Ngx Energy International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.21 | 0.06 | 6.12 | (5.88) | 24.73 | |
| PRQ | Petrus Resources | (0.02) | 5 per month | 1.94 | 0.02 | 4.17 | (3.11) | 11.74 | |
| PNE | Pine Cliff Energy | (0.01) | 8 per month | 2.49 | (0.02) | 6.25 | (4.65) | 14.13 | |
| KEI | Kolibri Global Energy | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.24 | (3.85) | 10.68 | |
| CFW | Calfrac Well Services | 0.12 | 7 per month | 1.11 | 0.24 | 5.05 | (2.80) | 20.71 | |
| HME | Hemisphere Energy | (0.02) | 3 per month | 1.83 | (0.02) | 3.05 | (2.07) | 12.29 | |
| FO | Falcon Oil Gas | (0.02) | 2 per month | 2.47 | 0.07 | 5.26 | (5.00) | 12.96 | |
| SEI | Sintana Energy | (0.03) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.00 | (5.08) | 32.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Journey Energy
For every potential investor in Journey, whether a beginner or expert, Journey Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Journey Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Journey. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Journey Energy's price trends.Journey Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Journey Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Journey Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Journey Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Journey Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Journey Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Journey Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Journey Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Journey Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Journey Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Journey Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Journey Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting journey stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Variance | 7.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Journey Energy
The number of cover stories for Journey Energy depends on current market conditions and Journey Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Journey Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Journey Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Journey Energy Short Properties
Journey Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Journey Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Journey Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Journey Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Journey Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.2 M |
Other Information on Investing in Journey Stock
Journey Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Journey Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Journey with respect to the benefits of owning Journey Energy security.