Jakarta Setiabudi Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

JSPT Stock  IDR 9,975  2,150  27.48%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jakarta Setiabudi Internasional on the next trading day is expected to be 10,361 with a mean absolute deviation of 258.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15,258. Jakarta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Jakarta Setiabudi - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Jakarta Setiabudi prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Jakarta Setiabudi price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Jakarta Setiabudi.

Jakarta Setiabudi Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jakarta Setiabudi Internasional on the next trading day is expected to be 10,361 with a mean absolute deviation of 258.62, mean absolute percentage error of 153,811, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15,258.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jakarta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jakarta Setiabudi's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jakarta Setiabudi Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Jakarta SetiabudiJakarta Setiabudi Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Jakarta Setiabudi Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jakarta Setiabudi's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jakarta Setiabudi's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10,350 and 10,371, respectively. We have considered Jakarta Setiabudi's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9,975
10,350
Downside
10,361
Expected Value
10,371
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jakarta Setiabudi stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jakarta Setiabudi stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -43.6335
MADMean absolute deviation258.617
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0728
SAESum of the absolute errors15258.4025
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Jakarta Setiabudi observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Jakarta Setiabudi Internasional observations.

Predictive Modules for Jakarta Setiabudi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jakarta Setiabudi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9,3659,3759,385
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7,4617,47110,312
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,4584,5177,576
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Jakarta Setiabudi

For every potential investor in Jakarta, whether a beginner or expert, Jakarta Setiabudi's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jakarta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jakarta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jakarta Setiabudi's price trends.

Jakarta Setiabudi Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jakarta Setiabudi stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jakarta Setiabudi could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jakarta Setiabudi by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jakarta Setiabudi Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jakarta Setiabudi's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jakarta Setiabudi's current price.

Jakarta Setiabudi Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jakarta Setiabudi stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jakarta Setiabudi shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jakarta Setiabudi stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jakarta Setiabudi Internasional entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jakarta Setiabudi Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jakarta Setiabudi's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jakarta Setiabudi's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jakarta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Other Information on Investing in Jakarta Stock

Jakarta Setiabudi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jakarta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jakarta with respect to the benefits of owning Jakarta Setiabudi security.