Jpmorgan Small Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

JSVPX Fund  USD 27.54  0.14  0.51%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jpmorgan Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 27.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.83. Jpmorgan Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Jpmorgan Small's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Jpmorgan Small's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Jpmorgan Small Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Jpmorgan Small hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jpmorgan Small Cap from the perspective of Jpmorgan Small response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jpmorgan Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 27.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.83.

Jpmorgan Small after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 20.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jpmorgan Small to cross-verify your projections.

Jpmorgan Small Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Jpmorgan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jpmorgan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jpmorgan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Jpmorgan Small simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Jpmorgan Small Cap are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Jpmorgan Small Cap prices get older.

Jpmorgan Small Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jpmorgan Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 27.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jpmorgan Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jpmorgan Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jpmorgan Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Jpmorgan SmallJpmorgan Small Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Jpmorgan Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jpmorgan Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jpmorgan Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.77 and 29.31, respectively. We have considered Jpmorgan Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.54
27.54
Expected Value
29.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jpmorgan Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jpmorgan Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3563
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0851
MADMean absolute deviation0.2267
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0094
SAESum of the absolute errors13.83
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Jpmorgan Small Cap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Jpmorgan Small observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Jpmorgan Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jpmorgan Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.1520.9230.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.3128.0829.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
22.4225.2928.16
Details

Jpmorgan Small After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Jpmorgan Small at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jpmorgan Small or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Jpmorgan Small, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Jpmorgan Small Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Jpmorgan Small's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jpmorgan Small's historical news coverage. Jpmorgan Small's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.15 and 30.29, respectively. We have considered Jpmorgan Small's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
27.54
20.92
After-hype Price
30.29
Upside
Jpmorgan Small is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jpmorgan Small Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.

Jpmorgan Small Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Jpmorgan Small is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jpmorgan Small backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jpmorgan Small, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.37 
1.77
  6.62 
  8.59 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
27.54
20.92
24.04 
9.89  
Notes

Jpmorgan Small Hype Timeline

Jpmorgan Small Cap is currently traded for 27.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -6.62, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 8.59. Jpmorgan is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.92. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 9.89%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -24.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on Jpmorgan Small is about 7.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.13. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jpmorgan Small to cross-verify your projections.

Jpmorgan Small Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Jpmorgan Small's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jpmorgan Small's future price movements. Getting to know how Jpmorgan Small's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jpmorgan Small may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Jpmorgan Small

For every potential investor in Jpmorgan, whether a beginner or expert, Jpmorgan Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jpmorgan Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jpmorgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jpmorgan Small's price trends.

Jpmorgan Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jpmorgan Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jpmorgan Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jpmorgan Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jpmorgan Small Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jpmorgan Small mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jpmorgan Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jpmorgan Small mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Jpmorgan Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jpmorgan Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jpmorgan Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jpmorgan Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jpmorgan mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Jpmorgan Small

The number of cover stories for Jpmorgan Small depends on current market conditions and Jpmorgan Small's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jpmorgan Small is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jpmorgan Small's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Jpmorgan Mutual Fund

Jpmorgan Small financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jpmorgan Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jpmorgan with respect to the benefits of owning Jpmorgan Small security.
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