Thonburi Medical Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

KDH Stock  THB 97.00  1.25  1.31%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thonburi Medical Centre on the next trading day is expected to be 97.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 218.50. Thonburi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Thonburi Medical - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Thonburi Medical prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Thonburi Medical price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Thonburi Medical Centre.

Thonburi Medical Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thonburi Medical Centre on the next trading day is expected to be 97.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.70, mean absolute percentage error of 281.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 218.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thonburi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thonburi Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Thonburi Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

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Thonburi Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Thonburi Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thonburi Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.97 and 225.33, respectively. We have considered Thonburi Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
97.00
97.50
Expected Value
225.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thonburi Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thonburi Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.3983
MADMean absolute deviation3.7034
MAPEMean absolute percentage error9.223372036854776E14
SAESum of the absolute errors218.5
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Thonburi Medical observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Thonburi Medical Centre observations.

Predictive Modules for Thonburi Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thonburi Medical Centre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.8597.009,797
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.6192.159,792
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Thonburi Medical

For every potential investor in Thonburi, whether a beginner or expert, Thonburi Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thonburi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thonburi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thonburi Medical's price trends.

Thonburi Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thonburi Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thonburi Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thonburi Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Thonburi Medical Centre Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Thonburi Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Thonburi Medical's current price.

Thonburi Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thonburi Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thonburi Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thonburi Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Thonburi Medical Centre entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Thonburi Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Thonburi Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thonburi Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thonburi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Thonburi Stock

Thonburi Medical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thonburi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thonburi with respect to the benefits of owning Thonburi Medical security.