Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View
| KNSA Stock | USD 44.56 0.11 0.25% |
Kiniksa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The RSI of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' share price is at 58. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.5 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.444 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.0525 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.525 | Wall Street Target Price 55 |
Using Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals using Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kiniksa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Kiniksa. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 34.2824 | Short Percent 0.0805 | Short Ratio 6.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.6 M | 50 Day MA 41.7071 |
Kiniksa Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 47.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.95.Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kiniksa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kiniksa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 1.05 |
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 47.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.95. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 44.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kiniksa contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0656% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 44.56, that is roughly USD 0.0292 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals options at the current volatility level of 1.05%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Kiniksa Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kiniksa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kiniksa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kiniksa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kiniksa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 192 M | Current Value 174.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 88.7 M |
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 47.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.97, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kiniksa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals | Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.93 and 49.16, respectively. We have considered Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0809 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7532 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.9471 |
Predictive Modules for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.44 and 46.66, respectively. We have considered Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 2.11 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.56 | 44.55 | 0.27 |
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Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is now traded for 44.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Kiniksa is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 44.55. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is about 1397.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.60. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.25. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:1 split on the 28th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IDYA | Ideaya Biosciences | (0.61) | 10 per month | 2.14 | 0.01 | 4.86 | (3.68) | 10.56 | |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock Holding | 1.56 | 10 per month | 2.40 | 0.16 | 5.92 | (4.21) | 31.68 | |
| APLS | Apellis Pharmaceuticals | (0.59) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.01 | (4.69) | 31.92 | |
| VCYT | Veracyte | 1.22 | 9 per month | 2.66 | 0.03 | 5.74 | (4.02) | 36.91 | |
| CPRX | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals | 0.03 | 12 per month | 1.54 | 0.11 | 3.00 | (3.08) | 10.89 | |
| FOLD | Amicus Therapeutics | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.19 | 3.45 | (1.31) | 30.77 | |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp | (0.36) | 11 per month | 3.83 | 0.04 | 9.94 | (4.95) | 29.55 | |
| MLYS | Mineralys Therapeutics Common | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.87 | (6.28) | 24.81 | |
| CDTX | Cidara Therapeutics | 0.33 | 6 per month | 1.30 | 0.13 | 5.93 | (4.54) | 105.72 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 4.56 | (4.03) | 10.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Kiniksa, whether a beginner or expert, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kiniksa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kiniksa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 44.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 44.56 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.45 |
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kiniksa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 243.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Kiniksa Stock refer to our How to Trade Kiniksa Stock guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals. Expected growth trajectory for Kiniksa significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.5 | Earnings Share 0.45 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.612 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.