Laureate Education Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

LA3A Stock  EUR 17.80  0.30  1.66%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Laureate Education on the next trading day is expected to be 17.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.20. Laureate Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Laureate Education's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Laureate Education simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Laureate Education are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Laureate Education prices get older.

Laureate Education Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Laureate Education on the next trading day is expected to be 17.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Laureate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Laureate Education's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Laureate Education Stock Forecast Pattern

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Laureate Education Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Laureate Education's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Laureate Education's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.19 and 20.41, respectively. We have considered Laureate Education's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.80
17.80
Expected Value
20.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Laureate Education stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Laureate Education stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.4296
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0767
MADMean absolute deviation0.2367
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors14.2
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Laureate Education forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Laureate Education observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Laureate Education

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Laureate Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.1917.8020.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.2719.8822.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Laureate Education. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Laureate Education's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Laureate Education's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Laureate Education.

Other Forecasting Options for Laureate Education

For every potential investor in Laureate, whether a beginner or expert, Laureate Education's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Laureate Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Laureate. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Laureate Education's price trends.

Laureate Education Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Laureate Education stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Laureate Education could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Laureate Education by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Laureate Education Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Laureate Education's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Laureate Education's current price.

Laureate Education Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Laureate Education stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Laureate Education shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Laureate Education stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Laureate Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Laureate Education Risk Indicators

The analysis of Laureate Education's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Laureate Education's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting laureate stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Laureate Stock

When determining whether Laureate Education is a strong investment it is important to analyze Laureate Education's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Laureate Education's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Laureate Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Laureate Education to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Laureate Stock please use our How to Invest in Laureate Education guide.
You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Laureate Education's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Laureate Education is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Laureate Education's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.