LB Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LBRX Stock | 23.14 0.77 3.22% |
LBRX Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The RSI of LB Pharmaceuticals' share price is at 58. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling LB Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using LB Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LB Pharmaceuticals Common from the perspective of LB Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LB Pharmaceuticals Common on the next trading day is expected to be 23.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.27. LB Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 23.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LB Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. LB Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LBRX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LBRX using various technical indicators. When you analyze LBRX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LB Pharmaceuticals Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LB Pharmaceuticals Common on the next trading day is expected to be 23.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80, mean absolute percentage error of 0.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LBRX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LB Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LB Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LB Pharmaceuticals | LB Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
LB Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LB Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LB Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.31 and 28.42, respectively. We have considered LB Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LB Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LB Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1435 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8012 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0423 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.2723 |
Predictive Modules for LB Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LB Pharmaceuticals Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LB Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LB Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LB Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LB Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LB Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LB Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LB Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. LB Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.47 and 28.59, respectively. We have considered LB Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LB Pharmaceuticals is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LB Pharmaceuticals Common is based on 3 months time horizon.
LB Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LB Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LB Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LB Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.66 | 5.06 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.14 | 23.53 | 1.69 |
|
LB Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
LB Pharmaceuticals Common is now traded for 23.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.39, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. LBRX is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 23.53 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.69%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.66%. The volatility of related hype on LB Pharmaceuticals is about 8161.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.10. Net Loss for the year was (63.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LB Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.LB Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LB Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LB Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how LB Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LB Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RCKT | Rocket Pharmaceuticals | 0.10 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.04 | (5.57) | 16.20 | |
| AURA | Aura Biosciences | 0.10 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.74 | (5.88) | 18.08 | |
| ANNX | Annexon | 0.43 | 7 per month | 3.33 | 0.21 | 11.30 | (7.54) | 35.10 | |
| SLDB | Solid Biosciences LLC | (0.27) | 14 per month | 4.51 | 0.03 | 11.36 | (7.56) | 21.63 | |
| LRMR | Larimar Therapeutics | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.96 | (8.39) | 21.85 | |
| ALT | Altimmune | (0.07) | 5 per month | 4.32 | 0.10 | 9.22 | (4.73) | 33.75 | |
| AUTL | Autolus Therapeutics | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.45 | (8.67) | 30.76 | |
| DBVT | DBV Technologies | (0.40) | 9 per month | 3.69 | 0.12 | 10.53 | (6.66) | 36.36 | |
| DSGN | Design Therapeutics | (0.04) | 11 per month | 3.36 | 0.17 | 10.04 | (5.98) | 29.54 | |
| KRRO | Frequency Therapeutics | (0.49) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.98 | (8.07) | 91.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for LB Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in LBRX, whether a beginner or expert, LB Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LBRX Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LBRX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LB Pharmaceuticals' price trends.LB Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LB Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LB Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LB Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LB Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LB Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LB Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LB Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LB Pharmaceuticals Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
LB Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of LB Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LB Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lbrx stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.91 | |||
| Variance | 24.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LB Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for LB Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and LB Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LB Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LB Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
LB Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
LB Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when LB Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LB Pharmaceuticals Common often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LB Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LB Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28 M |
Additional Tools for LBRX Stock Analysis
When running LB Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure LB Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LB Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of LB Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LB Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LB Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LB Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.