Luckin Coffee Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| LC0A Stock | 29.20 1.20 3.95% |
Luckin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Luckin Coffee's share price is approaching 44. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Luckin Coffee, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.502 |
Using Luckin Coffee hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Luckin Coffee from the perspective of Luckin Coffee response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Luckin Coffee on the next trading day is expected to be 30.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.93. Luckin Coffee after-hype prediction price | EUR 29.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Luckin |
Luckin Coffee Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Luckin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Luckin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Luckin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Luckin Coffee Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Luckin Coffee on the next trading day is expected to be 30.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.29, mean absolute percentage error of 2.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Luckin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Luckin Coffee's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Luckin Coffee Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Luckin Coffee | Luckin Coffee Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Luckin Coffee Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Luckin Coffee's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Luckin Coffee's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.97 and 33.43, respectively. We have considered Luckin Coffee's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Luckin Coffee stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Luckin Coffee stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.949 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2939 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0439 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 78.9263 |
Predictive Modules for Luckin Coffee
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Luckin Coffee. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Luckin Coffee After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Luckin Coffee at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Luckin Coffee or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Luckin Coffee, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Luckin Coffee Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Luckin Coffee's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Luckin Coffee's historical news coverage. Luckin Coffee's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.95 and 32.47, respectively. We have considered Luckin Coffee's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Luckin Coffee is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Luckin Coffee is based on 3 months time horizon.
Luckin Coffee Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Luckin Coffee is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Luckin Coffee backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Luckin Coffee, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 3.23 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.20 | 29.21 | 0.03 |
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Luckin Coffee Hype Timeline
Luckin Coffee is now traded for 29.20on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Luckin is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 29.21 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Luckin Coffee is about 2691.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.20. The company reported the revenue of 34.47 B. Net Income was 2.93 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 28.58 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Luckin Coffee to cross-verify your projections.Luckin Coffee Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Luckin Coffee's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Luckin Coffee's future price movements. Getting to know how Luckin Coffee's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Luckin Coffee may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TLIK | TELES Informationstechnologien AG | 0.00 | 3 per month | 15.13 | 0.08 | 34.62 | (31.58) | 202.56 | |
| 0BD | Zovio Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 6GP1 | GRAND PEAK CAPITAL | (0.01) | 1 per month | 13.54 | 0.09 | 2.56 | (17.50) | 289.31 | |
| 8SP | Superior Plus Corp | 0.01 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.29 | (2.27) | 22.43 | |
| 94P | AUREA SA INH | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0.02 | 3.44 | (3.49) | 11.80 | |
| DVDG | Franklin Global Quality | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.96 | (0.57) | 3.06 | |
| INL | Intel | 1.03 | 9 per month | 3.79 | 0.09 | 8.76 | (5.40) | 24.14 | |
| VOW | Volkswagen AG | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.37 | 0.09 | 1.70 | (0.66) | 6.39 | |
| BTC1 | Bitwise Core Bitcoin | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.44 | (4.17) | 14.40 | |
| RRU | Rolls Royce Holdings plc | 0.22 | 8 per month | 1.68 | 0.17 | 3.53 | (2.66) | 9.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for Luckin Coffee
For every potential investor in Luckin, whether a beginner or expert, Luckin Coffee's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Luckin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Luckin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Luckin Coffee's price trends.Luckin Coffee Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Luckin Coffee stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Luckin Coffee could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Luckin Coffee by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Luckin Coffee Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Luckin Coffee stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Luckin Coffee shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Luckin Coffee stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Luckin Coffee entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Luckin Coffee Risk Indicators
The analysis of Luckin Coffee's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Luckin Coffee's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting luckin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Variance | 9.8 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Luckin Coffee
The number of cover stories for Luckin Coffee depends on current market conditions and Luckin Coffee's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Luckin Coffee is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Luckin Coffee's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Luckin Stock Analysis
When running Luckin Coffee's price analysis, check to measure Luckin Coffee's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Luckin Coffee is operating at the current time. Most of Luckin Coffee's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Luckin Coffee's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Luckin Coffee's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Luckin Coffee to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.