Invesco Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

LCEAX Fund  USD 18.74  0.01  0.05%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Invesco Diversified Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 19.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.37. Invesco Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Invesco Diversified's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Invesco Diversified's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Invesco Diversified Dividend, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Invesco Diversified hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Invesco Diversified Dividend from the perspective of Invesco Diversified response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Invesco Diversified Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 19.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.37.

Invesco Diversified after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 18.73  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Diversified to cross-verify your projections.

Invesco Diversified Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Invesco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Invesco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Invesco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Invesco Diversified price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Invesco Diversified Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Invesco Diversified Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 19.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco Diversified's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Invesco Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Invesco DiversifiedInvesco Diversified Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Invesco Diversified Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Invesco Diversified's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco Diversified's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.43 and 21.12, respectively. We have considered Invesco Diversified's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.74
19.27
Expected Value
21.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco Diversified mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco Diversified mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8125
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4736
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0281
SAESum of the absolute errors29.3659
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Invesco Diversified Dividend historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Invesco Diversified

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Diversified. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.8918.7320.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.0716.9118.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.0518.0320.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Invesco Diversified. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Invesco Diversified's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Invesco Diversified's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Invesco Diversified.

Invesco Diversified After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Invesco Diversified at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Invesco Diversified or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Invesco Diversified, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Invesco Diversified Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Invesco Diversified's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Invesco Diversified's historical news coverage. Invesco Diversified's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.89 and 20.57, respectively. We have considered Invesco Diversified's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
18.74
18.73
After-hype Price
20.57
Upside
Invesco Diversified is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Invesco Diversified is based on 3 months time horizon.

Invesco Diversified Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Invesco Diversified is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Invesco Diversified backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Invesco Diversified, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
1.84
  0.01 
  2.48 
1 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
18.74
18.73
0.05 
4,600  
Notes

Invesco Diversified Hype Timeline

Invesco Diversified is now traded for 18.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 2.48. Invesco is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Invesco Diversified is about 21.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.22. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Diversified to cross-verify your projections.

Invesco Diversified Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Invesco Diversified's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Invesco Diversified's future price movements. Getting to know how Invesco Diversified's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Invesco Diversified may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ATOAXAlpine Ultra Short 0.00 1 per month 0.00 (1.65) 0.20  0.00  0.30 
FTFZXFranklin Federal Limited Term 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (1.31) 0.10 (0.10) 0.39 
GPAPXGoldman Sachs Short Term 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (1.16) 0.10  0.00  0.50 
SIGZXSeix Govt Sec 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.89) 0.10 (0.10) 0.61 
TSDCXTouchstone Ultra Short 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (1.02) 0.11 (0.11) 0.44 
JHSFXJohn Hancock Municipal 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (1.01) 0.20 (0.10) 0.49 
TEPFXAmerican Funds Tax Exempt 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (1.53) 0.10 (0.10) 0.21 
AOUNXAngel Oak Ultrashort 68.30 8 per month 0.00 (0.91) 0.10 (0.10) 0.51 

Other Forecasting Options for Invesco Diversified

For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco Diversified's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco Diversified's price trends.

Invesco Diversified Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco Diversified mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco Diversified could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Diversified by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Invesco Diversified Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco Diversified mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco Diversified shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco Diversified mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco Diversified Dividend entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Invesco Diversified Risk Indicators

The analysis of Invesco Diversified's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco Diversified's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Invesco Diversified

The number of cover stories for Invesco Diversified depends on current market conditions and Invesco Diversified's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Invesco Diversified is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Invesco Diversified's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Invesco Mutual Fund

Invesco Diversified financial ratios help investors to determine whether Invesco Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Invesco with respect to the benefits of owning Invesco Diversified security.
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