Locafy Stock Forward View
| LCFYW Stock | USD 3.08 0.00 0.00% |
Locafy Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Locafy's share price is approaching 31. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Locafy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.31) |
Using Locafy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Locafy Limited from the perspective of Locafy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Locafy Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 4.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.28. Locafy after-hype prediction price | USD 3.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment. Locafy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Locafy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Locafy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Locafy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Locafy's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 683.9 K | Current Value 649.7 K | Quarterly Volatility 1.1 M |
Locafy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Locafy Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 4.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 1.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Locafy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Locafy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Locafy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Locafy | Locafy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Locafy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Locafy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.162 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7587 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.2799 |
Predictive Modules for Locafy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Locafy Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Locafy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Locafy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Locafy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Locafy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Locafy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Locafy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Locafy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Locafy's historical news coverage. Locafy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 23.87, respectively. We have considered Locafy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Locafy is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Locafy Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Locafy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Locafy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Locafy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Locafy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.76 | 20.09 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.08 | 3.78 | 22.73 |
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Locafy Hype Timeline
Locafy Limited is now traded for 3.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.7, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Locafy is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.78 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 22.73%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.76%. The volatility of related hype on Locafy is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.08. Locafy Limited has accumulated 631.19 K in total debt. Locafy Limited has a current ratio of 0.45, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Note, when we think about Locafy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.Locafy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Locafy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Locafy's future price movements. Getting to know how Locafy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Locafy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QYOUF | QYOU Media | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.69 | (8.00) | 28.93 | |
| OAMCF | OverActive Media Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.88 | (6.25) | 38.89 | |
| APHP | American Picture House | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 20.00 | (19.00) | 48.08 | |
| ANGH | Anghami De | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.22 | 0.02 | 8.94 | (10.26) | 75.83 | |
| DLPN | Dolphin Entertainment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.71 | (4.35) | 17.06 | |
| AGAE | Allied Gaming Entertainment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 10.26 | (7.89) | 19.22 | |
| HWAL | Hollywall Entertainment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.49 | 0.02 | 25.42 | (19.12) | 65.51 | |
| GOAI | Eva Live Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.51 | 0.07 | 20.00 | (13.78) | 56.53 |
Locafy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Locafy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Locafy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Locafy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Locafy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Locafy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Locafy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Locafy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Locafy Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Locafy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Locafy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Locafy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting locafy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 12.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 14.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 17.62 | |||
| Variance | 310.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 322.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 197.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (16.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Locafy
The number of cover stories for Locafy depends on current market conditions and Locafy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Locafy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Locafy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Locafy Short Properties
Locafy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Locafy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Locafy Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Locafy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Locafy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 594.7 K |
Additional Tools for Locafy Stock Analysis
When running Locafy's price analysis, check to measure Locafy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Locafy is operating at the current time. Most of Locafy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Locafy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Locafy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Locafy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.