COSTAMARE Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LCM Stock | EUR 13.37 0.00 0.00% |
COSTAMARE Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast COSTAMARE stock prices and determine the direction of COSTAMARE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of COSTAMARE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of COSTAMARE's share price is above 70 at the present time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling COSTAMARE, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using COSTAMARE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of COSTAMARE from the perspective of COSTAMARE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COSTAMARE on the next trading day is expected to be 13.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.75. COSTAMARE after-hype prediction price | EUR 13.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
COSTAMARE |
COSTAMARE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine COSTAMARE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for COSTAMARE using various technical indicators. When you analyze COSTAMARE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
COSTAMARE Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COSTAMARE on the next trading day is expected to be 13.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict COSTAMARE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that COSTAMARE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
COSTAMARE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest COSTAMARE | COSTAMARE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
COSTAMARE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting COSTAMARE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. COSTAMARE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.08 and 14.68, respectively. We have considered COSTAMARE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of COSTAMARE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent COSTAMARE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0239 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1126 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0089 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.7531 |
Predictive Modules for COSTAMARE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COSTAMARE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.COSTAMARE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of COSTAMARE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in COSTAMARE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of COSTAMARE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
COSTAMARE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting COSTAMARE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on COSTAMARE's historical news coverage. COSTAMARE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.97 and 14.57, respectively. We have considered COSTAMARE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
COSTAMARE is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of COSTAMARE is based on 3 months time horizon.
COSTAMARE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as COSTAMARE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading COSTAMARE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with COSTAMARE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.30 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 7 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.37 | 13.27 | 0.75 |
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COSTAMARE Hype Timeline
COSTAMARE is now traded for 13.37on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. COSTAMARE is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 13.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.75%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on COSTAMARE is about 484.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.28. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.95. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. COSTAMARE last dividend was issued on the 18th of July 1970. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of COSTAMARE to cross-verify your projections.COSTAMARE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to COSTAMARE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict COSTAMARE's future price movements. Getting to know how COSTAMARE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how COSTAMARE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| T6W | THAI BEVERAGE | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 0.00 | (3.23) | 6.78 | |
| FV8 | Fevertree Drinks PLC | 0.1 | 4 per month | 2.75 | 0.02 | 3.87 | (2.69) | 19.50 | |
| 63T | Tencent Music Entertainment | (0.55) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.08 | (3.47) | 9.86 | |
| NY70 | MOLSON RS BEVERAGE | (1.39) | 1 per month | 2.25 | 0.02 | 6.44 | (4.50) | 23.68 | |
| BED | Marie Brizard Wine | 0.05 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.79 | (2.11) | 5.27 | |
| 2LH | MOVIE GAMES SA | (0.09) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.59 | (5.82) | 15.43 | |
| T6W | Thai Beverage Public | 0.00 | 8 per month | 2.49 | 0.01 | 6.67 | (6.25) | 16.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for COSTAMARE
For every potential investor in COSTAMARE, whether a beginner or expert, COSTAMARE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. COSTAMARE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in COSTAMARE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying COSTAMARE's price trends.COSTAMARE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with COSTAMARE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of COSTAMARE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing COSTAMARE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
COSTAMARE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how COSTAMARE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading COSTAMARE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying COSTAMARE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify COSTAMARE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
COSTAMARE Risk Indicators
The analysis of COSTAMARE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in COSTAMARE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting costamare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6035 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Variance | 2.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3642 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for COSTAMARE
The number of cover stories for COSTAMARE depends on current market conditions and COSTAMARE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that COSTAMARE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about COSTAMARE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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COSTAMARE Short Properties
COSTAMARE's future price predictability will typically decrease when COSTAMARE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of COSTAMARE often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential COSTAMARE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. COSTAMARE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 120 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 74.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of COSTAMARE to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade COSTAMARE Stock refer to our How to Trade COSTAMARE Stock guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.