Legend Biotech Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LEGN Stock | USD 17.72 0.13 0.73% |
Legend Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Legend Biotech's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Legend Biotech's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Legend Biotech fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Legend Biotech's share price is approaching 30. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Legend Biotech, making its price go up or down. Momentum 30
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.06) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.41) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.252 | Wall Street Target Price 66.3212 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.12) |
Using Legend Biotech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Legend Biotech Corp from the perspective of Legend Biotech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Legend Biotech using Legend Biotech's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Legend using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Legend Biotech's stock price.
Legend Biotech Short Interest
An investor who is long Legend Biotech may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Legend Biotech and may potentially protect profits, hedge Legend Biotech with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 31.6743 | Short Percent 0.2008 | Short Ratio 8.96 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.8 M | 50 Day MA 23.7534 |
Legend Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Legend Biotech Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.58.Legend Biotech Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Legend Biotech's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Legend. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Legend can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Legend Biotech Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Legend Biotech's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Legend Biotech.
Legend Biotech Implied Volatility | 0.85 |
Legend Biotech's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Legend Biotech Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Legend Biotech's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Legend Biotech stock will not fluctuate a lot when Legend Biotech's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Legend Biotech Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.58. Legend Biotech after-hype prediction price | USD 17.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Legend Biotech to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Legend contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Legend Biotech Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0531% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Legend Biotech trading at USD 17.72, that is roughly USD 0.009414 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Legend Biotech's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Legend Biotech Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Legend Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Legend Biotech's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Legend Biotech's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Legend Biotech stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Legend Biotech's open interest, investors have to compare it to Legend Biotech's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Legend Biotech is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Legend. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Legend Biotech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Legend price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Legend using various technical indicators. When you analyze Legend charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Legend Biotech Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Legend Biotech Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Legend Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Legend Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Legend Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Legend Biotech | Legend Biotech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Legend Biotech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Legend Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Legend Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.38 and 21.06, respectively. We have considered Legend Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Legend Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Legend Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7339 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2407 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6161 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0258 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.58 |
Predictive Modules for Legend Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Legend Biotech Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Legend Biotech After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Legend Biotech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Legend Biotech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Legend Biotech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Legend Biotech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Legend Biotech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Legend Biotech's historical news coverage. Legend Biotech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.41 and 21.03, respectively. We have considered Legend Biotech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Legend Biotech is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Legend Biotech Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Legend Biotech Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Legend Biotech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Legend Biotech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Legend Biotech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.93 | 3.34 | 1.21 | 0.45 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.72 | 17.72 | 0.00 |
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Legend Biotech Hype Timeline
Legend Biotech Corp is now traded for 17.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.45. Legend is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.93%. %. The volatility of related hype on Legend Biotech is about 688.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.17. About 48.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Legend Biotech was now reported as 5.48. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.28. Legend Biotech Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Legend Biotech to cross-verify your projections.Legend Biotech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Legend Biotech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Legend Biotech's future price movements. Getting to know how Legend Biotech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Legend Biotech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IRON | Disc Medicine | 3.05 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.42 | (4.35) | 16.19 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | (0.21) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 4.56 | (4.03) | 10.32 | |
| AAPG | Ascentage Pharma Group | (2.39) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.25 | (6.36) | 16.72 | |
| TARS | Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | 1.20 | 10 per month | 2.06 | (0.02) | 3.78 | (3.76) | 12.48 | |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp | 0.06 | 10 per month | 3.84 | 0.03 | 9.94 | (4.95) | 29.55 | |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock Holding | 1.56 | 11 per month | 2.42 | 0.15 | 5.92 | (4.21) | 31.68 | |
| CELC | Celcuity LLC | 1.10 | 16 per month | 2.02 | 0.21 | 7.55 | (2.93) | 17.89 | |
| CGON | CG Oncology Common | (0.83) | 8 per month | 2.58 | 0.07 | 5.15 | (4.40) | 33.66 | |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | 1.10 | 7 per month | 1.93 | (0) | 3.78 | (2.71) | 10.56 | |
| IDYA | Ideaya Biosciences | 0.21 | 10 per month | 2.03 | 0.06 | 4.86 | (3.68) | 15.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Legend Biotech
For every potential investor in Legend, whether a beginner or expert, Legend Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Legend Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Legend. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Legend Biotech's price trends.Legend Biotech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Legend Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Legend Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Legend Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Legend Biotech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Legend Biotech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Legend Biotech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Legend Biotech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Legend Biotech Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 73653.81 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.23) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.19) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 30.5 |
Legend Biotech Risk Indicators
The analysis of Legend Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Legend Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting legend stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.21 | |||
| Variance | 10.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Legend Biotech
The number of cover stories for Legend Biotech depends on current market conditions and Legend Biotech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Legend Biotech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Legend Biotech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Legend Biotech Short Properties
Legend Biotech's future price predictability will typically decrease when Legend Biotech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Legend Biotech Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Legend Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Legend Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Legend Biotech to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Legend diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Legend Biotech. Expected growth trajectory for Legend significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Legend Biotech data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (1.28) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.7 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Legend Biotech Corp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Legend Biotech's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Legend Biotech's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Legend Biotech's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Legend Biotech represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Legend Biotech's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.