Centrus Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LEU Stock | USD 300.40 37.36 11.06% |
Centrus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Centrus Energy's share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Centrus Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2731 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.731 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.9156 | Wall Street Target Price 294.112 |
Using Centrus Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Centrus Energy Corp from the perspective of Centrus Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Centrus Energy using Centrus Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Centrus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Centrus Energy's stock price.
Centrus Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long Centrus Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Centrus Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Centrus Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 224.2282 | Short Percent 0.2554 | Short Ratio 4.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.3 M | 50 Day MA 270.3356 |
Centrus Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Centrus Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 279.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 736.84.Centrus Energy Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Centrus Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Centrus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Centrus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Centrus Energy Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Centrus Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Centrus Energy.
Centrus Energy Implied Volatility | 0.97 |
Centrus Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Centrus Energy Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Centrus Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Centrus Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Centrus Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Centrus Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 279.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 736.84. Centrus Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 337.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Centrus Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Centrus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Centrus Energy Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0606% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Centrus Energy trading at USD 300.4, that is roughly USD 0.18 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Centrus Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Centrus Energy Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.97%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Centrus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Centrus Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Centrus Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Centrus Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Centrus Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Centrus Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Centrus Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Centrus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Centrus Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Centrus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Centrus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Centrus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Centrus Energy's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1998-09-30 | Previous Quarter 833 M | Current Value 1.6 B | Quarterly Volatility 217.3 M |
Centrus Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Centrus Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 279.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.08, mean absolute percentage error of 239.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 736.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Centrus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Centrus Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Centrus Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Centrus Energy | Centrus Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Centrus Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Centrus Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Centrus Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 273.70 and 284.85, respectively. We have considered Centrus Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Centrus Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Centrus Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.5873 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.0793 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0443 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 736.8351 |
Predictive Modules for Centrus Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Centrus Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Centrus Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Centrus Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Centrus Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Centrus Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Centrus Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Centrus Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Centrus Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Centrus Energy's historical news coverage. Centrus Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 332.17 and 343.33, respectively. We have considered Centrus Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Centrus Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Centrus Energy Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Centrus Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Centrus Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Centrus Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Centrus Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 5.58 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
300.40 | 337.75 | 0.00 |
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Centrus Energy Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Centrus Energy Corp is traded for 300.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Centrus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Centrus Energy is about 2607.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 300.40. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.42. Centrus Energy Corp last dividend was issued on the 22nd of November 2005. The entity had 91:1000 split on the 30th of September 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Centrus Energy to cross-verify your projections.Centrus Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Centrus Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Centrus Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Centrus Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Centrus Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UEC | Uranium Energy Corp | (0.32) | 13 per month | 3.83 | 0.13 | 10.55 | (7.45) | 23.03 | |
| NXE | NexGen Energy | 0.07 | 8 per month | 3.07 | 0.20 | 7.41 | (5.51) | 19.09 | |
| NOV | NOV Inc | (0.11) | 12 per month | 1.88 | 0.14 | 4.99 | (3.46) | 12.79 | |
| FRO | Frontline | (0.13) | 11 per month | 2.40 | 0.07 | 3.67 | (3.95) | 13.55 | |
| WFRD | Weatherford International plc | (2.31) | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.14 | 3.82 | (3.38) | 13.20 | |
| CRK | Comstock Resources | (0.13) | 11 per month | 3.50 | 0.09 | 5.60 | (5.83) | 16.77 | |
| SOBO | South Bow | 0.58 | 31 per month | 1.32 | 0.04 | 2.27 | (2.41) | 8.35 | |
| SUN | Sunoco LP | 0.62 | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.06 | 2.07 | (2.08) | 5.09 | |
| UUUU | Energy Fuels | 0.73 | 10 per month | 5.17 | 0.08 | 9.31 | (8.51) | 23.23 | |
| CHRD | Chord Energy Corp | (1.14) | 9 per month | 2.11 | 0.02 | 3.53 | (3.61) | 9.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Centrus Energy
For every potential investor in Centrus, whether a beginner or expert, Centrus Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Centrus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Centrus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Centrus Energy's price trends.Centrus Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Centrus Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Centrus Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Centrus Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Centrus Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Centrus Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Centrus Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Centrus Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Centrus Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.11 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.89 | |||
| Day Median Price | 319.08 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 312.85 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 37.36 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (37.36) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (37.36) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.19 |
Centrus Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Centrus Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Centrus Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting centrus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.69 | |||
| Variance | 32.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 27.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 26.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Centrus Energy
The number of cover stories for Centrus Energy depends on current market conditions and Centrus Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Centrus Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Centrus Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Centrus Energy Short Properties
Centrus Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Centrus Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Centrus Energy Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Centrus Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Centrus Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 701.4 M |
Additional Tools for Centrus Stock Analysis
When running Centrus Energy's price analysis, check to measure Centrus Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Centrus Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Centrus Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Centrus Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Centrus Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Centrus Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.