LGI Homes Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| LG1 Stock | EUR 42.60 2.40 5.33% |
LGI Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of LGI Homes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of LGI Homes' stock price is roughly 69. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 26th of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling LGI, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.65) | Wall Street Target Price 168.33 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
Using LGI Homes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LGI Homes from the perspective of LGI Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of LGI Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 46.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.99. LGI Homes after-hype prediction price | EUR 42.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
LGI |
LGI Homes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LGI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LGI using various technical indicators. When you analyze LGI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LGI Homes Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of LGI Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 46.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.11, mean absolute percentage error of 13.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LGI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LGI Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LGI Homes Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LGI Homes | LGI Homes Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
LGI Homes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LGI Homes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LGI Homes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.66 and 50.81, respectively. We have considered LGI Homes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LGI Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LGI Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.528 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1127 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0733 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 192.9863 |
Predictive Modules for LGI Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LGI Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LGI Homes After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LGI Homes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LGI Homes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LGI Homes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LGI Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LGI Homes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LGI Homes' historical news coverage. LGI Homes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.53 and 46.69, respectively. We have considered LGI Homes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LGI Homes is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LGI Homes is based on 3 months time horizon.
LGI Homes Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LGI Homes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LGI Homes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LGI Homes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 4.08 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.60 | 42.61 | 0.02 |
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LGI Homes Hype Timeline
LGI Homes is now traded for 42.60on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. LGI is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.61 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on LGI Homes is about 33.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.48. The company reported the revenue of 1.71 B. Net Income was 72.55 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 357 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LGI Homes to cross-verify your projections.LGI Homes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LGI Homes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LGI Homes' future price movements. Getting to know how LGI Homes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LGI Homes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SK3 | Smurfit Kappa Group | 0.20 | 2 per month | 2.00 | 0.14 | 4.68 | (2.75) | 20.59 | |
| SK3 | Smurfit Kappa Group | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.78 | 0.07 | 1.99 | (1.35) | 8.61 | |
| 1I8 | KIBO ENERGY PLC | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| O08 | HPQ SILICON INC | (0.01) | 5 per month | 6.51 | 0.02 | 18.18 | (14.29) | 47.27 | |
| MTO | METTLER TOLEDO INTL | (49.00) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.01 | (2.26) | 7.25 | |
| MTO | METTLER TOLEDO INTL | (32.50) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.54 | (2.35) | 7.35 | |
| MTO | Mettler Toledo International | (39.50) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.11 | (2.48) | 7.34 | |
| DC3A | DIAMCOR MINING INC | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 3EJ | LODESTAR MIN | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 7UP | CLABO SPA | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for LGI Homes
For every potential investor in LGI, whether a beginner or expert, LGI Homes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LGI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LGI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LGI Homes' price trends.LGI Homes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LGI Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LGI Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LGI Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LGI Homes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LGI Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LGI Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LGI Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LGI Homes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
LGI Homes Risk Indicators
The analysis of LGI Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LGI Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lgi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.0 | |||
| Variance | 16.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.51 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LGI Homes
The number of cover stories for LGI Homes depends on current market conditions and LGI Homes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LGI Homes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LGI Homes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LGI Homes Short Properties
LGI Homes' future price predictability will typically decrease when LGI Homes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LGI Homes often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LGI Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LGI Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.4 M | |
| Shares Float | 20.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LGI Homes to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in LGI Stock please use our How to Invest in LGI Homes guide.You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.