LGL Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| LGL Stock | USD 7.24 0.09 1.23% |
LGL Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although LGL's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of LGL's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of LGL fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of LGL's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.508 | Wall Street Target Price 8 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) |
Using LGL hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LGL Group from the perspective of LGL response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of LGL Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.31. LGL after-hype prediction price | USD 7.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LGL to cross-verify your projections. LGL Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LGL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LGL using various technical indicators. When you analyze LGL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LGL Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of LGL Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LGL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LGL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LGL Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LGL | LGL Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
LGL Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LGL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LGL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.29 and 10.21, respectively. We have considered LGL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LGL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LGL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.565 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1362 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0223 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.3055 |
Predictive Modules for LGL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LGL Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LGL After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LGL at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LGL or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LGL, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LGL Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LGL's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LGL's historical news coverage. LGL's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.78 and 9.70, respectively. We have considered LGL's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LGL is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LGL Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
LGL Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LGL is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LGL backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LGL, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 2.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.24 | 7.24 | 0.00 |
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LGL Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January LGL Group is traded for 7.24. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. LGL is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on LGL is about 9.223372036854776E16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.24. About 38.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.0. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. LGL Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.84. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of January 1989. The firm had 1641:1000 split on the 7th of August 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LGL to cross-verify your projections.LGL Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LGL's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LGL's future price movements. Getting to know how LGL's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LGL may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FCUV | Focus Universal | 0.02 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 7.47 | (16.67) | 43.73 | |
| SELX | Semilux International Ltd | (0.04) | 9 per month | 9.20 | 0.05 | 10.96 | (17.50) | 104.21 | |
| DAIO | Data IO | 0.13 | 9 per month | 2.39 | 0.01 | 5.66 | (4.14) | 13.24 | |
| VRAR | Glimpse Group | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 8.57 | (9.17) | 22.42 | |
| NSYS | Nortech Systems Incorporated | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.42 | (3.53) | 24.46 | |
| CSAI | Cloudastructure Class A | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 13.58 | (12.42) | 44.86 | |
| AUID | authID Inc | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 12.80 | (13.43) | 84.42 | |
| PXLW | Pixelworks | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.55 | (5.41) | 19.29 | |
| SVRE | SaverOne 2014 Ltd | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 13.49 | (12.54) | 64.89 | |
| GIFT | RDE Inc | 0.01 | 9 per month | 2.90 | 0 | 4.67 | (5.22) | 19.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for LGL
For every potential investor in LGL, whether a beginner or expert, LGL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LGL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LGL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LGL's price trends.LGL Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LGL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LGL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LGL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LGL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LGL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LGL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LGL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LGL Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 67.9 |
LGL Risk Indicators
The analysis of LGL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LGL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lgl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Variance | 5.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LGL
The number of cover stories for LGL depends on current market conditions and LGL's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LGL is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LGL's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LGL Short Properties
LGL's future price predictability will typically decrease when LGL's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LGL Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LGL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LGL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LGL to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LGL. Expected growth trajectory for LGL significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive LGL assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.508 | Earnings Share 0.04 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate LGL Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating LGL's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause LGL's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that LGL's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether LGL represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, LGL's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.