Ligand Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View

LGND Stock  USD 198.13  0.71  0.36%   
Ligand Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Ligand Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the RSI of Ligand Pharmaceuticals' share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ligand Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 49

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ligand Pharmaceuticals' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ligand Pharmaceuticals and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ligand Pharmaceuticals' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ligand Pharmaceuticals' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.032
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.03
EPS Estimate Current Year
7.58
EPS Estimate Next Year
8.4157
Wall Street Target Price
243.4444
Using Ligand Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated from the perspective of Ligand Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ligand Pharmaceuticals using Ligand Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ligand using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ligand Pharmaceuticals' stock price.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Ligand Pharmaceuticals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ligand. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
157.1974
Short Percent
0.0778
Short Ratio
5.46
Shares Short Prior Month
1.2 M
50 Day MA
195.7504

Ligand Relative Strength Index

The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 198.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 240.26.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Ligand Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ligand. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ligand can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ligand Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ligand Pharmaceuticals.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility

    
  0.53  
Ligand Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ligand Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ligand Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 198.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 240.26.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 198.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ligand Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ligand contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Ligand Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 198.13, that is roughly USD 0.0656 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ligand Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Ligand Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ligand Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ligand Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ligand Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Ligand Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ligand Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ligand. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ligand price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ligand using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ligand charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Ligand Pharmaceuticals' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1994-03-31
Previous Quarter
67.7 M
Current Value
139.4 M
Quarterly Volatility
240.2 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Ligand Pharmaceuticals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 198.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.94, mean absolute percentage error of 21.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 240.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ligand Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ligand Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ligand Pharmaceuticals  Ligand Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ligand Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ligand Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 196.85 and 201.14, respectively. We have considered Ligand Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
198.13
196.85
Downside
198.99
Expected Value
201.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.1987
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.9388
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.02
SAESum of the absolute errors240.2644
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ligand Pharmaceuticals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ligand Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ligand Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
196.77198.92201.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
178.96220.49222.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
186.94196.79206.64
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
221.53243.44270.22
Details

Ligand Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ligand Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ligand Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ligand Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ligand Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ligand Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Ligand Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 196.77 and 201.07, respectively. We have considered Ligand Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
198.13
196.77
Downside
198.92
After-hype Price
201.07
Upside
Ligand Pharmaceuticals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ligand Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ligand Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ligand Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ligand Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
2.15
  0.08 
  0.10 
11 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
198.13
198.92
0.04 
142.38  
Notes

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline

Ligand Pharmaceuticals is now traded for 198.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Ligand is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 198.92 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 142.38%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Ligand Pharmaceuticals is about 109.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 198.23. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 167.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.03 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 154.74 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ligand Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ligand Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ligand Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Ligand Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ligand Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PRAXPraxis Precision Medicines 18.18 5 per month 3.85  0.14  9.33 (6.06) 36.21 
BLTEBelite Bio ADR 1.91 7 per month 2.67  0.25  8.05 (5.94) 18.84 
MIRMMirum Pharmaceuticals(1.94)8 per month 1.67  0.23  4.60 (3.38) 13.83 
ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals(0.57)5 per month 1.74  0.05  3.35 (2.48) 9.79 
ADMAADMA Biologics(0.24)11 per month 2.61  0.06  5.01 (4.27) 13.78 
SLNOSoleno Therapeutics 0.95 11 per month 0.00 (0.13) 5.40 (4.91) 26.59 
VKTXViking Therapeutics 0.64 9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 7.49 (5.49) 19.06 
CRNXCrinetics Pharmaceuticals 2.10 8 per month 2.29  0.07  3.94 (3.74) 19.82 
DYNDyne Therapeutics 0.93 8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 7.01 (5.90) 26.40 
NAMSNewAmsterdam Pharma(2.24)10 per month 0.00 (0.04) 4.72 (4.89) 15.37 

Other Forecasting Options for Ligand Pharmaceuticals

For every potential investor in Ligand, whether a beginner or expert, Ligand Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ligand Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ligand. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ligand Pharmaceuticals' price trends.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ligand Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ligand Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ligand Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ligand Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ligand Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ligand Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ligand stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Ligand Pharmaceuticals

The number of cover stories for Ligand Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Ligand Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ligand Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ligand Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Short Properties

Ligand Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Ligand Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ligand Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ligand Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding18.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments256.2 M
When determining whether Ligand Pharmaceuticals is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ligand Pharmaceuticals' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ligand Pharmaceuticals' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ligand Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ligand Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Ligand diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ligand Pharmaceuticals. Expected growth trajectory for Ligand significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Ligand Pharmaceuticals data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.032
Earnings Share
2.27
Revenue Per Share
13.038
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.228
Return On Assets
0.0148
Understanding Ligand Pharmaceuticals requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Ligand's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Ligand Pharmaceuticals' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Ligand Pharmaceuticals' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Ligand Pharmaceuticals' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Ligand Pharmaceuticals represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Ligand Pharmaceuticals' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.