Legrand SA Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LGRDY Stock | USD 31.63 1.07 3.50% |
Legrand Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Legrand SA's share price is at 55. This indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Legrand SA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Legrand SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Legrand SA ADR from the perspective of Legrand SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Legrand SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 31.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.67. Legrand SA after-hype prediction price | USD 31.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Legrand |
Legrand SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Legrand price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Legrand using various technical indicators. When you analyze Legrand charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Legrand SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Legrand SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 31.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Legrand Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Legrand SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Legrand SA Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Legrand SA | Legrand SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Legrand SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Legrand SA's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Legrand SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.98 and 34.01, respectively. We have considered Legrand SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Legrand SA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Legrand SA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.8654 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4301 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.668 |
Predictive Modules for Legrand SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Legrand SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Legrand SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Legrand SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Legrand SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Legrand SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Legrand SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Legrand SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Legrand SA's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Legrand SA's historical news coverage. Legrand SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.61 and 33.65, respectively. We have considered Legrand SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Legrand SA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Legrand SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Legrand SA Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Legrand SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Legrand SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Legrand SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.63 | 31.63 | 0.00 |
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Legrand SA Hype Timeline
Legrand SA ADR is now traded for 31.63. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Legrand is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Legrand SA is about 1683.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.62. The book value of the company was now reported as 4.98. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.16. Legrand SA ADR last dividend was issued on the 26th of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Legrand SA to cross-verify your projections.Legrand SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Legrand SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Legrand SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Legrand SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Legrand SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASAZY | Assa Abloy AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.13 | 0.04 | 2.05 | (2.01) | 5.56 | |
| MIELF | Mitsubishi Electric | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.79 | 0.14 | 5.50 | (3.75) | 14.30 | |
| EXPGF | Experian PLC | (1.74) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 1.63 | (3.80) | 8.11 | |
| MIELY | Mitsubishi Electric Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.14 | 3.13 | (2.55) | 8.72 | |
| EXPGY | Experian plc PK | 0.54 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.11 | (2.91) | 9.93 | |
| DSDVF | DSV Panalpina AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.73 | 0.15 | 4.62 | (3.56) | 14.57 | |
| DSDVY | DSV Panalpina AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.22 | 3.15 | (2.18) | 10.90 | |
| CODYY | Compagnie de Saint Gobain | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.89 | (3.38) | 8.41 | |
| ANNSF | Aena SME SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.39 | 0.07 | 3.00 | (1.77) | 7.17 | |
| CODGF | Compagnie de Saint Gobain | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.49 | (2.41) | 11.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Legrand SA
For every potential investor in Legrand, whether a beginner or expert, Legrand SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Legrand Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Legrand. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Legrand SA's price trends.Legrand SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Legrand SA pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Legrand SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Legrand SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Legrand SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Legrand SA pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Legrand SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Legrand SA pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Legrand SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Legrand SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Legrand SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Legrand SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting legrand pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Variance | 3.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Legrand SA
The number of cover stories for Legrand SA depends on current market conditions and Legrand SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Legrand SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Legrand SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Legrand SA Short Properties
Legrand SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Legrand SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Legrand SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Legrand SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Legrand SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 B |
Additional Tools for Legrand Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Legrand SA's price analysis, check to measure Legrand SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Legrand SA is operating at the current time. Most of Legrand SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Legrand SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Legrand SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Legrand SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.