LightInTheBox Holding Stock Forward View
| LITB Stock | USD 2.89 0.07 2.48% |
LightInTheBox Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast LightInTheBox Holding stock prices and determine the direction of LightInTheBox Holding Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of LightInTheBox Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of LightInTheBox Holding's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.306 | Wall Street Target Price 3 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Using LightInTheBox Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LightInTheBox Holding Co from the perspective of LightInTheBox Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of LightInTheBox Holding Co on the next trading day is expected to be 2.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.09. LightInTheBox Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 2.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
LightInTheBox | Build AI portfolio with LightInTheBox Stock |
LightInTheBox Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LightInTheBox price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LightInTheBox using various technical indicators. When you analyze LightInTheBox charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
LightInTheBox Holding Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the LightInTheBox Holding's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 18.5 M | Current Value 16.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 25.9 M |
LightInTheBox Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of LightInTheBox Holding Co on the next trading day is expected to be 2.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LightInTheBox Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LightInTheBox Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LightInTheBox Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LightInTheBox Holding | LightInTheBox Holding Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
LightInTheBox Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LightInTheBox Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LightInTheBox Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.82, respectively. We have considered LightInTheBox Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LightInTheBox Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LightInTheBox Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4053 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1326 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.061 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.0861 |
Predictive Modules for LightInTheBox Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LightInTheBox Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LightInTheBox Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LightInTheBox Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LightInTheBox Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LightInTheBox Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LightInTheBox Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LightInTheBox Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LightInTheBox Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LightInTheBox Holding's historical news coverage. LightInTheBox Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.14 and 8.78, respectively. We have considered LightInTheBox Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LightInTheBox Holding is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LightInTheBox Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
LightInTheBox Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LightInTheBox Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LightInTheBox Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LightInTheBox Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 5.89 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.89 | 2.89 | 0.00 |
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LightInTheBox Holding Hype Timeline
LightInTheBox Holding is now traded for 2.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. LightInTheBox is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on LightInTheBox Holding is about 8295.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.90. About 54.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. LightInTheBox Holding had 1:6 split on the 5th of September 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LightInTheBox Holding to cross-verify your projections.LightInTheBox Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LightInTheBox Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LightInTheBox Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how LightInTheBox Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LightInTheBox Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TBHC | The Brand House | 0.05 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.79 | (5.07) | 14.73 | |
| QVCGA | QVC Group | 0.29 | 10 per month | 8.94 | 0.02 | 14.97 | (9.85) | 41.44 | |
| TLF | Tandy Leather Factory | 0.02 | 7 per month | 1.84 | 0.03 | 3.09 | (2.44) | 8.82 | |
| TOUR | Tuniu Corp | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.05 | (5.71) | 21.39 | |
| ISPO | Inspirato | 0.02 | 5 per month | 1.17 | 0.11 | 6.32 | (3.14) | 47.07 | |
| PRTS | CarPartsCom | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.00 | (7.69) | 23.61 | |
| LESL | Leslies | (0.08) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 9.06 | (10.32) | 42.31 | |
| FAT | FAT Brands | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 12.00 | (27.18) | 59.40 | |
| JBDI | JBDI Holdings Limited | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 12.20 | (9.41) | 24.94 | |
| SBDS | SBDS | 0.42 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 14.90 | (14.62) | 64.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for LightInTheBox Holding
For every potential investor in LightInTheBox, whether a beginner or expert, LightInTheBox Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LightInTheBox Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LightInTheBox. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LightInTheBox Holding's price trends.LightInTheBox Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LightInTheBox Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LightInTheBox Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LightInTheBox Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LightInTheBox Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LightInTheBox Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LightInTheBox Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LightInTheBox Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LightInTheBox Holding Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
LightInTheBox Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of LightInTheBox Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LightInTheBox Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lightinthebox stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.83 | |||
| Variance | 33.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LightInTheBox Holding
The number of cover stories for LightInTheBox Holding depends on current market conditions and LightInTheBox Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LightInTheBox Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LightInTheBox Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
LightInTheBox Holding Short Properties
LightInTheBox Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when LightInTheBox Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LightInTheBox Holding Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LightInTheBox Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LightInTheBox Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LightInTheBox Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LightInTheBox Holding. Expected growth trajectory for LightInTheBox significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive LightInTheBox Holding assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.306 | Earnings Share 0.24 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets |
The market value of LightInTheBox Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LightInTheBox that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LightInTheBox Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LightInTheBox Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LightInTheBox Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LightInTheBox Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that LightInTheBox Holding's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether LightInTheBox Holding represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, LightInTheBox Holding's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.