Live Ventures Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LIVE Stock | USD 20.70 0.95 4.81% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Live Ventures on the next trading day is expected to be 21.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.36. Live Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Live Ventures stock prices and determine the direction of Live Ventures's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Live Ventures' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Live Ventures' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.70) | Wall Street Target Price 138 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
Using Live Ventures hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Live Ventures from the perspective of Live Ventures response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Live Ventures on the next trading day is expected to be 21.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.36. Live Ventures after-hype prediction price | USD 20.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Live Ventures to cross-verify your projections. Live Ventures Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Live price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Live using various technical indicators. When you analyze Live charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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Live Ventures Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Live Ventures' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-09-30 | Previous Quarter 7.6 M | Current Value 8.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 34.9 M |
Live Ventures Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Live Ventures on the next trading day is expected to be 21.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Live Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Live Ventures' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Live Ventures Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Live Ventures | Live Ventures Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Live Ventures Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Live Ventures' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Live Ventures' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.64 and 27.83, respectively. We have considered Live Ventures' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Live Ventures stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Live Ventures stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0742 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7272 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0512 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.3594 |
Predictive Modules for Live Ventures
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Live Ventures. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Live Ventures' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Live Ventures After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Live Ventures at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Live Ventures or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Live Ventures, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Live Ventures Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Live Ventures' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Live Ventures' historical news coverage. Live Ventures' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.57 and 26.77, respectively. We have considered Live Ventures' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Live Ventures is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Live Ventures is based on 3 months time horizon.
Live Ventures Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Live Ventures is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Live Ventures backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Live Ventures, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 6.10 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.70 | 20.67 | 0.14 |
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Live Ventures Hype Timeline
Live Ventures is now traded for 20.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Live is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.67. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.58%. The volatility of related hype on Live Ventures is about 6630.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.65. About 72.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Live Ventures last dividend was issued on the 12th of July 2005. The entity had 1:6 split on the 8th of December 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Live Ventures to cross-verify your projections.Live Ventures Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Live Ventures' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Live Ventures' future price movements. Getting to know how Live Ventures' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Live Ventures may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SYPR | Sypris Solutions | (0.14) | 9 per month | 3.04 | 0.16 | 11.93 | (6.70) | 30.00 | |
| TLYS | Tillys Inc | (0.02) | 8 per month | 3.35 | 0.03 | 11.36 | (5.60) | 32.45 | |
| FRSX | Foresight Autonomous Holdings | (0.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.95 | (7.78) | 35.97 | |
| LESL | Leslies | (0.31) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 9.20 | (9.63) | 42.31 | |
| DXLG | Destination XL Group | 0.45 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.61 | (6.93) | 71.37 | |
| QVCGA | QVC Group | (0.85) | 9 per month | 9.52 | (0) | 14.97 | (14.29) | 46.70 | |
| CULP | Culp Inc | 0.18 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.40 | (3.08) | 9.88 | |
| JRSH | Jerash Holdings | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.64 | (1.86) | 5.16 | |
| PRTS | CarPartsCom | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.69 | (7.69) | 23.61 | |
| PFAI | Pinnacle Food Group | (0.03) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.90 | (8.57) | 31.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Live Ventures
For every potential investor in Live, whether a beginner or expert, Live Ventures' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Live Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Live. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Live Ventures' price trends.Live Ventures Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Live Ventures stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Live Ventures could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Live Ventures by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Live Ventures Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Live Ventures stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Live Ventures shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Live Ventures stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Live Ventures entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Live Ventures Risk Indicators
The analysis of Live Ventures' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Live Ventures' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting live stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.88 | |||
| Variance | 34.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Live Ventures
The number of cover stories for Live Ventures depends on current market conditions and Live Ventures' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Live Ventures is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Live Ventures' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Live Ventures Short Properties
Live Ventures' future price predictability will typically decrease when Live Ventures' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Live Ventures often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Live Ventures' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Live Ventures' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Live Ventures to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Live Stock refer to our How to Trade Live Stock guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Live Ventures. If investors know Live will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Live Ventures listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.70) | Earnings Share 4.93 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Live Ventures is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Live that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Live Ventures' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Live Ventures' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Live Ventures' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Live Ventures' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Live Ventures' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Live Ventures is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Live Ventures' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.