Longleaf Partners Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Longleaf Partners Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Longleaf price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Longleaf using various technical indicators. When you analyze Longleaf charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Longleaf Partners works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Longleaf Partners Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Longleaf Partners Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 29.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.89.

Longleaf Partners Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Longleaf Partners

Longleaf Partners Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Longleaf Partners Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Longleaf Partners mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Longleaf Partners mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Longleaf Partners Small Cap prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Longleaf Partners Small Cap trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Longleaf Partners observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Longleaf Partners

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Longleaf Partners Small. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 28.88 29.60 30.32 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 28.73 29.45 30.17 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 28.79 29.54 30.29 Details

Longleaf Partners After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Longleaf Partners Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Longleaf Partners Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Longleaf Partners Hype Timeline

Longleaf Partners Small is now traded for 29.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Longleaf is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 29.6. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Longleaf Partners is about 47.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.70. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.33. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Longleaf Partners Small last dividend was issued on the 27th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Longleaf Partners to cross-verify your projections.

Longleaf Partners Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Longleaf Partners

For every potential investor in Longleaf, whether a beginner or expert, Longleaf Partners' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Longleaf Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Longleaf. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Longleaf Partners' price trends.

Longleaf Partners Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Longleaf Partners Market Strength Events

Longleaf Partners Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Longleaf Partners

Other Macroaxis Stories

Other Information on Investing in Longleaf Mutual Fund