Eli Lilly Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LLY Stock | EUR 896.40 20.70 2.26% |
Eli Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eli Lilly's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 27th of January 2026, The value of RSI of Eli Lilly's share price is at 54. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Eli Lilly, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Eli Lilly hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Eli Lilly and from the perspective of Eli Lilly response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eli Lilly and on the next trading day is expected to be 896.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 881.14. Eli Lilly after-hype prediction price | EUR 896.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Eli |
Eli Lilly Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Eli price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Eli using various technical indicators. When you analyze Eli charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Eli Lilly Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eli Lilly and on the next trading day is expected to be 896.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.44, mean absolute percentage error of 333.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 881.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eli Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eli Lilly's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Eli Lilly Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Eli Lilly | Eli Lilly Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Eli Lilly Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Eli Lilly's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eli Lilly's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 894.25 and 898.55, respectively. We have considered Eli Lilly's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eli Lilly stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eli Lilly stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.9209 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -3.1613 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 14.4449 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 881.14 |
Predictive Modules for Eli Lilly
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eli Lilly. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Eli Lilly After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Eli Lilly at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Eli Lilly or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Eli Lilly, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Eli Lilly Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Eli Lilly's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Eli Lilly's historical news coverage. Eli Lilly's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 894.27 and 898.53, respectively. We have considered Eli Lilly's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Eli Lilly is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Eli Lilly is based on 3 months time horizon.
Eli Lilly Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Eli Lilly is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Eli Lilly backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Eli Lilly, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
896.40 | 896.40 | 0.00 |
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Eli Lilly Hype Timeline
Eli Lilly is now traded for 896.40on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Eli is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.44%. %. The volatility of related hype on Eli Lilly is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 896.40. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.21. Eli Lilly recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.49. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eli Lilly to cross-verify your projections.Eli Lilly Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Eli Lilly's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Eli Lilly's future price movements. Getting to know how Eli Lilly's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Eli Lilly may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| T7W | Treasury Wine Estates | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.92 | (3.63) | 14.41 | |
| GCB | PTT Global Chemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.61 | 0.05 | 6.25 | (3.92) | 14.94 | |
| MUG | Mitsubishi Gas Chemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.26 | (0.01) | 3.52 | (3.59) | 17.09 | |
| SEH | SHIN ETSU CHEMICAL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.89 | 0.02 | 3.36 | (3.77) | 11.42 | |
| H1Q | China BlueChemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.62 | 0.03 | 8.00 | (7.14) | 21.88 | |
| CTE | CHINA TONTINE WINES | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AP3 | AIR PRODCHEMICALS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | (0.01) | 1.87 | (2.33) | 16.39 | |
| 6BC0 | EAT WELL INVESTMENT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Eli Lilly
For every potential investor in Eli, whether a beginner or expert, Eli Lilly's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eli Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eli. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eli Lilly's price trends.Eli Lilly Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eli Lilly stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eli Lilly could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eli Lilly by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Eli Lilly Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eli Lilly stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eli Lilly shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eli Lilly stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eli Lilly and entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Eli Lilly Risk Indicators
The analysis of Eli Lilly's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eli Lilly's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eli stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Eli Lilly
The number of cover stories for Eli Lilly depends on current market conditions and Eli Lilly's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Eli Lilly is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Eli Lilly's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Eli Stock
When determining whether Eli Lilly offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Eli Lilly's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Eli Lilly And Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Eli Lilly And Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eli Lilly to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.