Eli Lilly Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average

Key Indicators . 4 Period Moving Average . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Eli Lilly and
LLY Stock  USD 985.96  18.97  1.96%   
Eli Lilly's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The fit is assessed against recent observations, so the output reflects the latest available data. When MAPE exceeds 10%, the model's short-term predictive value is significantly reduced. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects Eli Lilly at 969.09 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The 4 Period Moving Average output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
The four-period moving average forecast for Eli Lilly and replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the four preceding closing prices. This smoothing window is wide enough to dampen short-term noise while still responding to recent price shifts in Eli Lilly.

4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2026

Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts Eli Lilly at 969.09 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 22.54 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 1,285 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Eli Lilly's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Eli Lilly  Eli Lilly Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The projected range for Eli Lilly reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The forecast band spans 966.76 to 971.42. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Market Value
985.96
966.76
Downside
969.09
Expected Value
971.42
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Eli Lilly stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.497
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 2.4122
MADMean absolute deviation22.5359
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0239
SAESum of the absolute errors1284.5475
The model is suited for higher-volatility price series where a two-period average would be too reactive. It does not extrapolate a trend equation, so its forecasting utility is limited to one or two periods ahead. Tighter error metrics (lower MAD/MAPE) indicate that Eli Lilly price movement is well-captured by this smoothing window.

Other Forecasting Options for Eli Lilly

Volume-weighted price analysis for Eli Lilly Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line identify shifts in Eli Lilly momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Eli Lilly's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Eli Lilly Stock price action.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Eli Lilly Related Equities

These related stocks within the Health Care space give benchmarks for judging Eli Lilly's results, margins, and growth trend. Growth rate gaps between Eli Lilly and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eli Lilly Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Eli Lilly and, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Eli Lilly. These metrics are particularly useful when Eli Lilly stock shows divergence from broader market trends. These metrics provide additional context for comparing intraday conviction with broader price movement in Eli Lilly.
Accumulation Distribution0.0192
Daily Balance Of Power1.0
Rate Of Daily Change1.02
Day Median Price976.48
Day Typical Price979.64
Market Facilitation Index18.97
Price Action Indicator18.97
Period Momentum Indicator18.97
Relative Strength Index53.83

Eli Lilly Risk Indicators

Analyzing Eli Lilly's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for eli lilly stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Eli Lilly. Semi-deviation focuses exclusively on returns below the mean, making it a more conservative risk gauge for Eli Lilly than full standard deviation. The risk-return trade-off for eli lilly stock becomes clearer when downside and total variance are viewed together.
Mean Deviation1.68
Standard Deviation2.32
Variance5.4
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Eli Lilly Short Properties

Short-interest data for Eli Lilly reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding898 million
Cash And Short Term Investments7.27 billion
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