Lockheed Martin Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LMT Stock | MXN 10,870 870.00 8.70% |
Lockheed Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Lockheed Martin's share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Lockheed, making its price go up or down. Momentum 72
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Lockheed Martin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lockheed Martin from the perspective of Lockheed Martin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lockheed Martin on the next trading day is expected to be 10,870 with a mean absolute deviation of 104.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,251. Lockheed Martin after-hype prediction price | MXN 8231.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Lockheed |
Lockheed Martin Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lockheed price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lockheed using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lockheed charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lockheed Martin Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lockheed Martin on the next trading day is expected to be 10,870 with a mean absolute deviation of 104.18, mean absolute percentage error of 43,521, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,251.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lockheed Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lockheed Martin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lockheed Martin Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lockheed Martin | Lockheed Martin Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lockheed Martin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lockheed Martin's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lockheed Martin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10,868 and 10,872, respectively. We have considered Lockheed Martin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lockheed Martin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lockheed Martin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.9536 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -33.5467 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 104.1843 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6251.06 |
Predictive Modules for Lockheed Martin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lockheed Martin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lockheed Martin After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lockheed Martin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lockheed Martin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lockheed Martin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lockheed Martin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lockheed Martin's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lockheed Martin's historical news coverage. Lockheed Martin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8,229 and 8,233, respectively. We have considered Lockheed Martin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lockheed Martin is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lockheed Martin is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lockheed Martin Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lockheed Martin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lockheed Martin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lockheed Martin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 2.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10,870 | 8,231 | 0.00 |
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Lockheed Martin Hype Timeline
Lockheed Martin is now traded for 10,870on Mexican Exchange of Mexico. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Lockheed is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lockheed Martin is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10,870. About 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 406.97. Lockheed Martin last dividend was issued on the 28th of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lockheed Martin to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Lockheed Stock please use our How to Invest in Lockheed Martin guide.Lockheed Martin Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lockheed Martin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lockheed Martin's future price movements. Getting to know how Lockheed Martin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lockheed Martin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UPS | United Parcel Service | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.38 | 0.09 | 3.16 | (2.65) | 13.13 | |
| GCARSOA1 | Grupo Carso SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.95 | (0.01) | 3.14 | (2.98) | 10.61 | |
| GAPB | Grupo Aeroportuario del | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.38 | 0.12 | 2.81 | (2.38) | 9.23 | |
| OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario del | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.05 | 4.11 | (2.30) | 10.34 | |
| ASURB | Grupo Aeroportuario del | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | 0.07 | 2.05 | (1.99) | 6.49 | |
| LAMOSA | Grupo Lamosa SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 0.01 | (0.96) | 2.93 | |
| GMXT | GMxico Transportes SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.07 | (2.75) | 10.88 | |
| PINFRA | Promotora y Operadora | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.16 | 2.95 | (2.32) | 6.59 | |
| PINFRAL | Promotora y Operadora | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.12 | 2.63 | (2.56) | 10.83 | |
| TRAXIONA | Grupo Traxin SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.05 | (3.23) | 9.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lockheed Martin
For every potential investor in Lockheed, whether a beginner or expert, Lockheed Martin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lockheed Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lockheed. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lockheed Martin's price trends.Lockheed Martin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lockheed Martin stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lockheed Martin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lockheed Martin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lockheed Martin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lockheed Martin stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lockheed Martin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lockheed Martin stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lockheed Martin entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0118 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 6.692308 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.09 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10935.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10913.33 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 130.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 370.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 870.0 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 72.52 |
Lockheed Martin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lockheed Martin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lockheed Martin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lockheed stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lockheed Martin
The number of cover stories for Lockheed Martin depends on current market conditions and Lockheed Martin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lockheed Martin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lockheed Martin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Lockheed Stock Analysis
When running Lockheed Martin's price analysis, check to measure Lockheed Martin's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lockheed Martin is operating at the current time. Most of Lockheed Martin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lockheed Martin's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lockheed Martin's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lockheed Martin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.