LeonaBio Stock Forward View
| LONA Stock | 4.65 0.09 1.90% |
LeonaBio Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast LeonaBio stock prices and determine the direction of LeonaBio's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of LeonaBio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the RSI of LeonaBio's share price is approaching 41. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling LeonaBio, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using LeonaBio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LeonaBio from the perspective of LeonaBio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of LeonaBio on the next trading day is expected to be 5.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.09. LeonaBio after-hype prediction price | USD 4.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LeonaBio to cross-verify your projections. LeonaBio Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LeonaBio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LeonaBio using various technical indicators. When you analyze LeonaBio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LeonaBio Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the LeonaBio's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2019-03-31 | Previous Quarter 19.9 M | Current Value 20.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 45.7 M |
LeonaBio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of LeonaBio on the next trading day is expected to be 5.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LeonaBio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LeonaBio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LeonaBio Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LeonaBio | LeonaBio Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
LeonaBio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LeonaBio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LeonaBio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 14.67, respectively. We have considered LeonaBio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LeonaBio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LeonaBio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8411 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3949 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0751 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.0918 |
Predictive Modules for LeonaBio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LeonaBio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LeonaBio After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LeonaBio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LeonaBio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LeonaBio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LeonaBio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LeonaBio's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LeonaBio's historical news coverage. LeonaBio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.22 and 13.71, respectively. We have considered LeonaBio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LeonaBio is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LeonaBio is based on 3 months time horizon.
LeonaBio Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LeonaBio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LeonaBio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LeonaBio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 9.30 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 3 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.65 | 4.41 | 5.16 |
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LeonaBio Hype Timeline
LeonaBio is now traded for 4.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. LeonaBio is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.41. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -5.16%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.58%. The volatility of related hype on LeonaBio is about 4151.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.52. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LeonaBio to cross-verify your projections.LeonaBio Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LeonaBio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LeonaBio's future price movements. Getting to know how LeonaBio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LeonaBio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LPTX | Leap Therapeutics | 0.01 | 9 per month | 6.90 | 0.14 | 25.00 | (9.43) | 65.13 | |
| CTXR | Citius Pharmaceuticals | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 10.59 | (9.49) | 38.23 | |
| ICU | SeaStar Medical Holding | (0.18) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 9.58 | (9.88) | 34.66 | |
| APLM | Apollomics Class A | (0.72) | 2 per month | 7.29 | 0.09 | 17.50 | (12.59) | 44.38 | |
| MBRX | Moleculin Biotech | (0.50) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 9.37 | (11.73) | 41.63 | |
| CRIS | Curis Inc | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 9.60 | (8.13) | 33.70 | |
| FBLG | FibroBiologics Common Stock | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 14.71 | (15.15) | 47.13 | |
| LNAI | Lunai Bioworks | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 12.62 | (8.82) | 55.92 | |
| ADTX | Aditxt Inc | (0.80) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 22.54 | (26.33) | 63.67 | |
| DARE | Dare Bioscience | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.55 | (6.98) | 26.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for LeonaBio
For every potential investor in LeonaBio, whether a beginner or expert, LeonaBio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LeonaBio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LeonaBio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LeonaBio's price trends.LeonaBio Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LeonaBio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LeonaBio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LeonaBio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LeonaBio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LeonaBio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LeonaBio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LeonaBio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LeonaBio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
LeonaBio Risk Indicators
The analysis of LeonaBio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LeonaBio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting leonabio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.91 | |||
| Variance | 79.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LeonaBio
The number of cover stories for LeonaBio depends on current market conditions and LeonaBio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LeonaBio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LeonaBio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LeonaBio Short Properties
LeonaBio's future price predictability will typically decrease when LeonaBio's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LeonaBio often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LeonaBio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LeonaBio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 51.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LeonaBio to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade LeonaBio Stock refer to our How to Trade LeonaBio Stock guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LeonaBio. Expected growth trajectory for LeonaBio significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive LeonaBio assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding LeonaBio requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects LeonaBio's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what LeonaBio's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push LeonaBio's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that LeonaBio's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether LeonaBio represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, LeonaBio's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.