Lipocine Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LPCN Stock | USD 10.45 0.76 7.84% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lipocine on the next trading day is expected to be 9.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.06. Lipocine Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Lipocine's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lipocine's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lipocine fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Lipocine's share price is above 70 as of today. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Lipocine, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.56) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.97) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.81) | Wall Street Target Price 10.875 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.54) |
Using Lipocine hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lipocine from the perspective of Lipocine response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lipocine on the next trading day is expected to be 9.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.06. Lipocine after-hype prediction price | USD 10.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lipocine to cross-verify your projections. Lipocine Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lipocine price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lipocine using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lipocine charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lipocine Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Lipocine's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 6 M | Current Value 3.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 11.6 M |
Lipocine Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lipocine on the next trading day is expected to be 9.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lipocine Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lipocine's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lipocine Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lipocine | Lipocine Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lipocine Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lipocine's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lipocine's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.01 and 16.38, respectively. We have considered Lipocine's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lipocine stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lipocine stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3092 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2913 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0517 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.0624 |
Predictive Modules for Lipocine
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lipocine. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lipocine's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lipocine After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lipocine at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lipocine or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lipocine, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lipocine Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lipocine's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lipocine's historical news coverage. Lipocine's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.79 and 17.11, respectively. We have considered Lipocine's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lipocine is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lipocine is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lipocine Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lipocine is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lipocine backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lipocine, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.41 | 6.69 | 2.02 | 0.41 | 28 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 28 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.45 | 10.45 | 0.00 |
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Lipocine Hype Timeline
Lipocine is now traded for 10.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.41. Lipocine is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 2.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lipocine is about 3912.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.04. About 19.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Lipocine was now reported as 2.61. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.02. Lipocine had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:17 split on the 12th of May 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 28 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lipocine to cross-verify your projections.Lipocine Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lipocine's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lipocine's future price movements. Getting to know how Lipocine's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lipocine may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OSRH | OSR Holdings | 0.01 | 9 per month | 6.28 | 0.08 | 16.67 | (10.00) | 43.23 | |
| ADAP | Adaptimmune Therapeutics Plc | 0.78 | 26 per month | 15.04 | 0.02 | 22.82 | (18.18) | 168.52 | |
| ANL | Adlai Nortye Ltd | 0.11 | 9 per month | 6.23 | 0.07 | 10.07 | (11.76) | 42.22 | |
| BLRX | BioLineRx | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.95 | (5.26) | 13.04 | |
| GOVX | GeoVax Labs | (2.34) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 9.23 | (13.70) | 42.89 | |
| EDSA | Edesa Biotech | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.20 | (6.47) | 29.85 | |
| PMN | ProMIS Neurosciences | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.41 | (7.69) | 38.10 | |
| ERNA | Eterna Therapeutics | (0.06) | 6 per month | 4.72 | 0 | 12.10 | (7.41) | 51.97 | |
| LNAI | Lunai Bioworks | 0.31 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 12.62 | (12.82) | 55.92 | |
| MBRX | Moleculin Biotech | (0.50) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 9.76 | (11.73) | 41.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lipocine
For every potential investor in Lipocine, whether a beginner or expert, Lipocine's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lipocine Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lipocine. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lipocine's price trends.Lipocine Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lipocine stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lipocine could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lipocine by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lipocine Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lipocine stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lipocine shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lipocine stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lipocine entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lipocine Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lipocine's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lipocine's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lipocine stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.5 | |||
| Variance | 42.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lipocine
The number of cover stories for Lipocine depends on current market conditions and Lipocine's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lipocine is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lipocine's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lipocine Short Properties
Lipocine's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lipocine's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lipocine often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lipocine's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lipocine's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lipocine to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Lipocine Stock, please use our How to Invest in Lipocine guide.You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lipocine. If investors know Lipocine will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lipocine listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.02) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 5.954 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Lipocine is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lipocine that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lipocine's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lipocine's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lipocine's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lipocine's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lipocine's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lipocine is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lipocine's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.