Alps/red Rocks Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

LPEFX Fund  USD 5.84  0.04  0.69%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Alpsred Rocks Listed on the next trading day is expected to be 5.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34. Alps/red Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Alps/red Rocks' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Alps/red Rocks' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alpsred Rocks Listed, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Alps/red Rocks hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alpsred Rocks Listed from the perspective of Alps/red Rocks response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Alpsred Rocks Listed on the next trading day is expected to be 5.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34.

Alps/red Rocks after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alps/red Rocks to cross-verify your projections.

Alps/red Rocks Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alps/red price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alps/red using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alps/red charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Alps/red Rocks price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Alps/red Rocks Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Alpsred Rocks Listed on the next trading day is expected to be 5.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alps/red Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alps/red Rocks' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alps/red Rocks Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alps/red RocksAlps/red Rocks Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alps/red Rocks Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alps/red Rocks' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alps/red Rocks' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.14 and 7.82, respectively. We have considered Alps/red Rocks' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.84
5.98
Expected Value
7.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alps/red Rocks mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alps/red Rocks mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9011
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1829
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0351
SAESum of the absolute errors11.3427
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Alpsred Rocks Listed historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Alps/red Rocks

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alpsred Rocks Listed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.975.817.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.346.188.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alps/red Rocks. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alps/red Rocks' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alps/red Rocks' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alpsred Rocks Listed.

Alps/red Rocks After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alps/red Rocks at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alps/red Rocks or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Alps/red Rocks, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Alps/red Rocks Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Alps/red Rocks' mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alps/red Rocks' historical news coverage. Alps/red Rocks' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.97 and 7.65, respectively. We have considered Alps/red Rocks' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.84
5.81
After-hype Price
7.65
Upside
Alps/red Rocks is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alpsred Rocks Listed is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alps/red Rocks Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Alps/red Rocks is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alps/red Rocks backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alps/red Rocks, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.22 
1.84
  0.03 
  0.02 
10 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.84
5.81
0.51 
1,533  
Notes

Alps/red Rocks Hype Timeline

Alpsred Rocks Listed is now traded for 5.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Alps/red is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.51%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Alps/red Rocks is about 2216.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.82. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.46. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Alpsred Rocks Listed last dividend was issued on the 10th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alps/red Rocks to cross-verify your projections.

Alps/red Rocks Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Alps/red Rocks' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alps/red Rocks' future price movements. Getting to know how Alps/red Rocks' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alps/red Rocks may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GURUGlobal X Guru(0.07)15 per month 0.75 (0.03) 1.31 (1.17) 3.53 
NORWGlobal X MSCI 0.12 5 per month 0.86  0.03  1.59 (1.41) 4.84 
XYLGGlobal X SP 0.13 12 per month 0.46 (0.04) 1.02 (0.88) 2.69 
HYDRGlobal X Hydrogen(0.61)2 per month 3.27 (0.03) 4.52 (5.14) 15.58 
GAACambria Global Asset(0.12)3 per month 0.23  0.02  0.83 (0.66) 1.93 
AMUUDirexion Daily AMD(0.02)2 per month 5.98  0.03  12.64 (9.57) 33.90 
WBIYAbsolute Shares Trust 0.00 0 per month 0.55  0.05  1.73 (1.20) 4.05 
TSDDGraniteShares 15x Short(0.19)2 per month 0.00 (0.04) 9.09 (8.01) 26.95 
FARFXFidelity Income Replacement(0.09)3 per month 0.25 (0.20) 0.54 (0.54) 1.36 
DSCFDiscipline Fund ETF 0.02 1 per month 0.00 (0.21) 0.46 (0.33) 1.30 

Other Forecasting Options for Alps/red Rocks

For every potential investor in Alps/red, whether a beginner or expert, Alps/red Rocks' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alps/red Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alps/red. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alps/red Rocks' price trends.

Alps/red Rocks Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alps/red Rocks mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alps/red Rocks could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alps/red Rocks by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alps/red Rocks Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alps/red Rocks mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alps/red Rocks shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alps/red Rocks mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Alpsred Rocks Listed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alps/red Rocks Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alps/red Rocks' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alps/red Rocks' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alps/red mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Alps/red Rocks

The number of cover stories for Alps/red Rocks depends on current market conditions and Alps/red Rocks' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alps/red Rocks is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alps/red Rocks' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Alps/red Mutual Fund

Alps/red Rocks financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alps/red Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alps/red with respect to the benefits of owning Alps/red Rocks security.
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