Locorr Spectrum Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

LSPAX Fund  USD 5.72  0.01  0.18%   
Locorr Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Locorr Spectrum's share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Locorr, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 72

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Locorr Spectrum's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Locorr Spectrum Income, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Locorr Spectrum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Locorr Spectrum Income from the perspective of Locorr Spectrum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Locorr Spectrum Income on the next trading day is expected to be 5.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.40.

Locorr Spectrum after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 6.41  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Locorr Spectrum to cross-verify your projections.

Locorr Spectrum Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Locorr price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Locorr using various technical indicators. When you analyze Locorr charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Locorr Spectrum works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Locorr Spectrum Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Locorr Spectrum Income on the next trading day is expected to be 5.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Locorr Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Locorr Spectrum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Locorr Spectrum Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Locorr Spectrum  Locorr Spectrum Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Locorr Spectrum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Locorr Spectrum's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Locorr Spectrum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.24 and 6.23, respectively. We have considered Locorr Spectrum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.72
5.73
Expected Value
6.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Locorr Spectrum mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Locorr Spectrum mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.004
MADMean absolute deviation0.0237
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0044
SAESum of the absolute errors1.3996
When Locorr Spectrum Income prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Locorr Spectrum Income trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Locorr Spectrum observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Locorr Spectrum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Locorr Spectrum Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.156.416.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.156.266.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Locorr Spectrum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Locorr Spectrum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Locorr Spectrum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Locorr Spectrum Income.

Locorr Spectrum After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Locorr Spectrum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Locorr Spectrum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Locorr Spectrum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Locorr Spectrum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Locorr Spectrum's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Locorr Spectrum's historical news coverage. Locorr Spectrum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.15 and 6.91, respectively. We have considered Locorr Spectrum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.72
6.41
After-hype Price
6.91
Upside
Locorr Spectrum is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Locorr Spectrum Income is based on 3 months time horizon.

Locorr Spectrum Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Locorr Spectrum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Locorr Spectrum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Locorr Spectrum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
0.50
  0.69 
  0.84 
6 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.72
6.41
12.06 
10.12  
Notes

Locorr Spectrum Hype Timeline

Locorr Spectrum Income is now traded for 5.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.69, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.84. Locorr is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.41 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 10.12%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 12.06%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Locorr Spectrum is about 8.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.56. Debt can assist Locorr Spectrum until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Locorr Spectrum's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Locorr Spectrum Income sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Locorr to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Locorr Spectrum's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Locorr Spectrum to cross-verify your projections.

Locorr Spectrum Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Locorr Spectrum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Locorr Spectrum's future price movements. Getting to know how Locorr Spectrum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Locorr Spectrum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Locorr Spectrum

For every potential investor in Locorr, whether a beginner or expert, Locorr Spectrum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Locorr Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Locorr. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Locorr Spectrum's price trends.

Locorr Spectrum Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Locorr Spectrum mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Locorr Spectrum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Locorr Spectrum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Locorr Spectrum Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Locorr Spectrum mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Locorr Spectrum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Locorr Spectrum mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Locorr Spectrum Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Locorr Spectrum Risk Indicators

The analysis of Locorr Spectrum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Locorr Spectrum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting locorr mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Locorr Spectrum

The number of cover stories for Locorr Spectrum depends on current market conditions and Locorr Spectrum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Locorr Spectrum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Locorr Spectrum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Locorr Mutual Fund

Locorr Spectrum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Locorr Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Locorr with respect to the benefits of owning Locorr Spectrum security.
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