Chocoladefabriken Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

LSPP Stock  EUR 12,910  190.00  1.49%   
Chocoladefabriken Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Chocoladefabriken's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Chocoladefabriken's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Chocoladefabriken Lindt Sprngli, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Chocoladefabriken's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.622
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.174
Using Chocoladefabriken hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chocoladefabriken Lindt Sprngli from the perspective of Chocoladefabriken response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chocoladefabriken Lindt Sprngli on the next trading day is expected to be 12,975 with a mean absolute deviation of 117.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,027.

Chocoladefabriken after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 12902.2  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chocoladefabriken to cross-verify your projections.

Chocoladefabriken Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Chocoladefabriken price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chocoladefabriken using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chocoladefabriken charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Chocoladefabriken - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Chocoladefabriken prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Chocoladefabriken price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Chocoladefabriken Lindt.

Chocoladefabriken Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chocoladefabriken Lindt Sprngli on the next trading day is expected to be 12,975 with a mean absolute deviation of 117.12, mean absolute percentage error of 23,296, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,027.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chocoladefabriken Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chocoladefabriken's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Chocoladefabriken Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Chocoladefabriken  Chocoladefabriken Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Chocoladefabriken Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Chocoladefabriken's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chocoladefabriken's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12,974 and 12,976, respectively. We have considered Chocoladefabriken's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12,910
12,974
Downside
12,975
Expected Value
12,976
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chocoladefabriken stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chocoladefabriken stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -3.0696
MADMean absolute deviation117.1189
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0094
SAESum of the absolute errors7027.1359
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Chocoladefabriken observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Chocoladefabriken Lindt Sprngli observations.

Predictive Modules for Chocoladefabriken

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chocoladefabriken Lindt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12,90112,90214,201
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12,82212,82314,201
Details

Chocoladefabriken After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Chocoladefabriken at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chocoladefabriken or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chocoladefabriken, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Chocoladefabriken Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Chocoladefabriken's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chocoladefabriken's historical news coverage. Chocoladefabriken's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12,901 and 14,201, respectively. We have considered Chocoladefabriken's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12,910
12,901
Downside
12,902
After-hype Price
14,201
Upside
Chocoladefabriken is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chocoladefabriken Lindt is based on 3 months time horizon.

Chocoladefabriken Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chocoladefabriken is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chocoladefabriken backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chocoladefabriken, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
1.21
  6.00 
  0.01 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12,910
12,902
0.06 
2.02  
Notes

Chocoladefabriken Hype Timeline

Chocoladefabriken Lindt is now traded for 12,910on Munich Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -6.0, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Chocoladefabriken is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12902.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 2.02%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Chocoladefabriken is about 1466.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12,910. About 39.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7. Chocoladefabriken Lindt recorded earning per share (EPS) of 1578.0. The entity last dividend was issued on the 6th of May 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chocoladefabriken to cross-verify your projections.

Chocoladefabriken Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Chocoladefabriken's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chocoladefabriken's future price movements. Getting to know how Chocoladefabriken's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chocoladefabriken may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BEDMarie Brizard Wine(0.03)4 per month 0.00 (0.21) 1.79 (2.11) 4.23 
NY7Molson Coors Beverage 0.89 9 per month 1.38  0.07  2.57 (3.02) 9.46 
NM4Natus Medical Incorporated(0.01)1 per month 0.00 (0.25) 5.88 (8.57) 25.32 
P75Perpetua Medical AB(0.01)3 per month 0.00 (0.07) 6.52 (6.67) 25.19 
BBEABOSTON BEER A  0.00 7 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.96 (2.67) 6.60 
M3VMeVis Medical Solutions(0.20)3 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.65 (2.42) 16.06 
TSITsingtao Brewery 0.02 5 per month 0.00 (0.24) 1.47 (1.76) 6.16 
B3BNCVR Medical Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 

Other Forecasting Options for Chocoladefabriken

For every potential investor in Chocoladefabriken, whether a beginner or expert, Chocoladefabriken's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chocoladefabriken Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chocoladefabriken. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chocoladefabriken's price trends.

Chocoladefabriken Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chocoladefabriken stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chocoladefabriken could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chocoladefabriken by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Chocoladefabriken Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chocoladefabriken stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chocoladefabriken shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chocoladefabriken stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chocoladefabriken Lindt Sprngli entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Chocoladefabriken Risk Indicators

The analysis of Chocoladefabriken's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chocoladefabriken's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chocoladefabriken stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Chocoladefabriken

The number of cover stories for Chocoladefabriken depends on current market conditions and Chocoladefabriken's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chocoladefabriken is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chocoladefabriken's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Additional Tools for Chocoladefabriken Stock Analysis

When running Chocoladefabriken's price analysis, check to measure Chocoladefabriken's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chocoladefabriken is operating at the current time. Most of Chocoladefabriken's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chocoladefabriken's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chocoladefabriken's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chocoladefabriken to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.