Lululemon Athletica Stock Forward View
| LULU Stock | USD 172.85 2.76 1.62% |
Lululemon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Lululemon Athletica's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.1) | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.0426 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.6577 | Wall Street Target Price 208.0842 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.2085 |
Using Lululemon Athletica hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lululemon Athletica from the perspective of Lululemon Athletica response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lululemon Athletica using Lululemon Athletica's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lululemon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lululemon Athletica's stock price.
Lululemon Athletica Short Interest
An investor who is long Lululemon Athletica may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lululemon Athletica and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lululemon Athletica with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 212.099 | Short Percent 0.055 | Short Ratio 1.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 6 M | 50 Day MA 195.41 |
Lululemon Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lululemon Athletica on the next trading day is expected to be 173.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 212.99.Lululemon Athletica Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lululemon Athletica's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lululemon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lululemon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lululemon Athletica. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lululemon Athletica's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lululemon Athletica.
Lululemon Athletica Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Lululemon Athletica's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lululemon Athletica stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lululemon Athletica's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lululemon Athletica stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lululemon Athletica's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lululemon Athletica on the next trading day is expected to be 173.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 212.99. Lululemon Athletica after-hype prediction price | USD 172.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lululemon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lululemon Athletica will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Lululemon Athletica trading at USD 172.85, that is roughly USD 0.0573 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lululemon Athletica's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lululemon Athletica options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Lululemon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lululemon Athletica's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lululemon Athletica's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lululemon Athletica stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lululemon Athletica's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lululemon Athletica's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lululemon Athletica is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lululemon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lululemon Athletica Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lululemon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lululemon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lululemon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Lululemon Athletica's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2006-01-31 | Previous Quarter 1.2 B | Current Value 1 B | Quarterly Volatility 477 M |
Lululemon Athletica Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lululemon Athletica on the next trading day is expected to be 173.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.49, mean absolute percentage error of 18.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 212.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lululemon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lululemon Athletica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lululemon Athletica Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lululemon Athletica | Lululemon Athletica Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lululemon Athletica Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lululemon Athletica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lululemon Athletica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 171.25 and 176.53, respectively. We have considered Lululemon Athletica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lululemon Athletica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lululemon Athletica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0033 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4916 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 212.9855 |
Predictive Modules for Lululemon Athletica
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lululemon Athletica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lululemon Athletica After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lululemon Athletica at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lululemon Athletica or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lululemon Athletica, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lululemon Athletica Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lululemon Athletica's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lululemon Athletica's historical news coverage. Lululemon Athletica's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 170.26 and 175.50, respectively. We have considered Lululemon Athletica's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lululemon Athletica is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lululemon Athletica is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lululemon Athletica Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lululemon Athletica is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lululemon Athletica backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lululemon Athletica, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 2.64 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
172.85 | 172.88 | 0.02 |
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Lululemon Athletica Hype Timeline
Lululemon Athletica is now traded for 172.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Lululemon is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 172.88 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Lululemon Athletica is about 134.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 172.73. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 10.59 B. Net Income was 1.81 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 6.47 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lululemon Athletica to cross-verify your projections.Lululemon Athletica Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lululemon Athletica's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lululemon Athletica's future price movements. Getting to know how Lululemon Athletica's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lululemon Athletica may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BURL | Burlington Stores | (3.73) | 11 per month | 2.95 | 0.05 | 4.29 | (3.49) | 17.25 | |
| GAP | The Gap | (0.30) | 11 per month | 1.60 | 0.12 | 6.37 | (2.84) | 12.19 | |
| ONON | On Holding | (1.09) | 9 per month | 1.90 | 0.07 | 4.25 | (3.37) | 22.63 | |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | (0.63) | 11 per month | 3.04 | 0.06 | 5.28 | (4.20) | 25.85 | |
| ANF | Abercrombie Fitch | 3.30 | 8 per month | 3.56 | 0.1 | 5.90 | (3.97) | 55.23 | |
| GES | Guess Inc | (3.83) | 21 per month | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.54 | (0.71) | 280,833 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.08) | 9 per month | 1.70 | (0.04) | 2.98 | (3.04) | 9.51 | |
| CRI | Carters | 0.08 | 8 per month | 2.36 | 0.09 | 5.14 | (5.25) | 14.38 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.94) | 16 per month | 2.10 | 0.16 | 5.78 | (3.78) | 19.55 | |
| BOOT | Boot Barn Holdings | (12.46) | 10 per month | 2.28 | 0.01 | 5.76 | (3.56) | 11.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lululemon Athletica
For every potential investor in Lululemon, whether a beginner or expert, Lululemon Athletica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lululemon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lululemon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lululemon Athletica's price trends.Lululemon Athletica Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lululemon Athletica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lululemon Athletica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lululemon Athletica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lululemon Athletica Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lululemon Athletica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lululemon Athletica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lululemon Athletica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lululemon Athletica entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lululemon Athletica Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lululemon Athletica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lululemon Athletica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lululemon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Variance | 7.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lululemon Athletica
The number of cover stories for Lululemon Athletica depends on current market conditions and Lululemon Athletica's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lululemon Athletica is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lululemon Athletica's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lululemon Athletica Short Properties
Lululemon Athletica's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lululemon Athletica's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lululemon Athletica often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lululemon Athletica's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lululemon Athletica's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 123.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Additional Tools for Lululemon Stock Analysis
When running Lululemon Athletica's price analysis, check to measure Lululemon Athletica's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lululemon Athletica is operating at the current time. Most of Lululemon Athletica's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lululemon Athletica's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lululemon Athletica's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lululemon Athletica to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.